Essepchi Nasyr Ake from Alai paid great attention to the plant and animal world for the purpose of weather prediction.
He believed that the deterioration or improvement of the weather could be determined by observing plants and animals — changes in the weather can be inferred from their behavior. According to local residents, Nasyr Ake was a good hunter and an experienced trainer of birds of prey; through his work, he had ample opportunity to study the nature of his homeland well. He knew many plants but paid particular attention to the flowers of kaakym — dandelion, too teke — goat's rue, leaves of uy bede — red clover, yshkyn — sorrel, kozu kulak — mountain sorrel, twigs of karagay — spruce, archi — juniper, and the abundant sprouts of ermen — wormwood, among others; he remembered the timing of leaf fall as well as the changes in the color of leaves of trees and shrubs: tereks — poplars, ak kayysh — birches, tal — willows.
It is known that the abundant growth of wild plants largely depends on the amount of precipitation, as well as the properties of the soil and the habitat. In particular, the vigorous growth of wormwood provides food for animals during harsh winters (nature seems to compensate for the lack of other grasses). Wormwood is a good disinfectant for many ailments. The Kyrgyz have long known that animals consuming this bitter herb rid themselves of intestinal diseases. However, to this day, we do not have scientific evidence of a connection between the abundance of wormwood and the onset of a cold winter following a relatively favorable previous one.
The activity of plants and animals depends on climatic conditions; many plants respond remarkably sensitively to atmospheric changes, i.e., the humidity or, conversely, the dryness of the air can be judged by their condition. Some plants close their flower petals before bad weather to protect the pollen and reduce heat loss; others, in high humidity, close their stomata and thereby reduce the evaporation area while abundantly secreting nectar; others weep, forming tiny droplets of sap at the tips of leaves and twigs; and some change the shape and position of their leaves — bending them sideways, curling or straightening them.
Stomata on leaves are not visible without a microscope. Nature has created these amazing moisture regulators scattered across the entire surface of leaves. That is why even in great heat, the leaves of plants remain cool.
Currently, more than 400 species of plants are known that can serve as living "barometers" of the weather, among them chyrmooc — bindweed, joogazyn — tulip, many representatives of zhylky teke — goat's beard, balzaminder — balsams, kvk bazinder — gentians, koyon tomuktar — clematis, and others. Some plants emit a strong fragrance before heavy rain, for example, chege gul — carnation, kunduz gul — buttercup, kokomerin — jujube, and others. "Tears" on the leaves of dan osumduktor — cereal plants, shilbiler — honeysuckle, ak taygaktar — rhododendron, karyndyz — elecampane, and others also appear before rain. The leaves of field red clover and sorrel slowly fold on cloudy days; taruu — millet also folds its leaves and curls its flower petals before bad weather. Dandelion flowers do not open early in the morning; if the flower petals rise and open by 9-10 a.m. and remain in this position until noon, it will not rain that day. Spruce branches bend in anticipation of a snowstorm, and straighten for clear weather.
Leaves are colored by different pigments; for example, thanks to chlorophyll, they are green, which facilitates photosynthesis and plant growth. In autumn, chlorophyll is replaced by xanthophyll and carotene, causing leaves to change color to yellow and orange.
However, some leaves do not change color at all, for example, kara-zhyjach — elm, siren gulu — lilac, and others; their leaves remain green until the end of leaf fall. The autumn aging of the leaf gradually spreads to its petiole, where a fragile layer of thin-walled, loosely arranged cells forms. At this moment, a light breeze, raindrops, dew, or even the leaf's own weight is enough for it to detach from the branch. The timing, duration, and nature of leaf fall vary among different trees and shrubs.
Interestingly, plants have evolved the ability to "recognize" the approach of winter not so much by fluctuating temperature indicators but by a stable astronomical factor — the reduction in day length. This calendar sign serves as a reliable signal for plants about the onset of autumn and winter. Thus, leaf fall is an important biological adaptation of plants to winter cold, an example of purposefulness in nature.
And animals tell about the weather
Nasyr Ake observed the behavior of wild mountain animals (wolves, foxes, deer, ibex, etc.) and birds (grouse, partridges, etc.) closely. For example, he said: "Elik-echki were mating early this year, winter will come early — This year winter will arrive ahead of time, as the mating of deer and ibex occurred earlier than usual, and conversely, if these animals mate late, it serves as a sign that winter and the onset of cold will be delayed (mating in animals occurs when there is a lot of fat accumulated in the body and when there is sufficient food). If after some time following mating the animals descend from the mountains to where there is plenty of grass, the esepchi would say: "If wild mountain animals and birds start coming down from their places, then the wintering of livestock will be hard and severe." Kyrgyz hunters say that the mountain goat looks at the moon for a long time before mating, as if searching for an answer to the question of what kind of winter it will be — harsh or not.
There is even a saying among the people: "You look like a mountain goat when it gazes at the moon for a long time." In snowy, long, and cold winters, mountain animals apparently do not mate at all, which can be explained by the development of a special reflex during centuries of evolution in harsh mountain conditions.
As people have noticed, if a gadfly appears in deep autumn, winter will be harsh, and if there is a large population of mice, it will be snowy and prolonged, with winds.
As previously noted, Kyrgyz esepchi believed that harsh winters are preceded by unfavorable meteorological conditions in summer and autumn. If there is a drought in summer, the growth of grass is delayed, it becomes dry and prickly, and domestic animals, especially horses, respond sensitively to this. They start to nibble the tops of shrubs, and more importantly, kulun tashtayt — they drop their fruit. These signs of djuta — harbingers of a harsh winter — were most feared by the Kyrgyz.
The activity of the gadfly in deep autumn is apparently associated with late egg-laying — a kind of premonition of a long and cold winter. Before a cold winter, mice instinctively increase their offspring, as many will soon perish, and only those individuals that adapt better to the cold and hunger will survive, and these will continue the mouse lineage.
A good connoisseur of nature, Nasyr Ake believed that if wild animals shed their fur earlier than usual, one should expect an early and snowy winter.
Thus, observations of various insects during their active lifestyle, transitional periods, and periods of dormancy, flowering of plants and their vigorous growth, the appearance and falling of leaves, the first and last autumn thunderstorms, lightning, and much more allowed esepchi to develop a number of close-to-accurate signs that enable them to predict the exact timing of the onset of spring and winter, as well as the nature of the seasons. Professor S. M. Abramzon, who studied the ethnography of pre-revolutionary Kyrgyz for many years, noted: "No matter how primitive and inaccurate these signs may be, they give reason to speak of the existence of a phenological system among the Kyrgyz in the past." In predicting the weather, esepchi primarily relied on simple experiments and observations of the surrounding natural environment. Academician A. Karpinsky was right to urge not to miss the opportunity to observe nature, as over time this provides a person with significant useful natural-historical experience; conscious observation combined with some preparation always leads to real results.