The main strategies that the leadership of Kyrgyzstan can implement during the forecast period until 2020 can be conditionally summarized as follows:
1. “Flexible course” — a multi-vector foreign policy. This course is difficult to implement for Kyrgyzstan, as a weak economy, limited armed forces, and a small population predetermine relatively limited opportunities for conducting a truly independent foreign and economic policy.
2. “Entering the sphere of influence of Kazakhstan” — a growing political and economic dependence on the Republic of Kazakhstan. In principle, this is a variant of delegating authority in choosing a strategic path of development to a state that is ethnically and mentally close but more powerful, primarily economically. In its pure form, this scenario is also difficult to implement, as although Kazakhstan has significantly greater capabilities than Kyrgyzstan, its potential is also relatively small on a global scale. The implementation of this scenario essentially means that the choice of Kyrgyzstan's development path will be determined in Astana in accordance with four other scenarios.
3. “Eurasian integration” — one of the most acceptable scenarios for Kyrgyzstan, as it potentially allows Kyrgyzstan, along with other Central Asian states, to become a system-forming unit of a large geopolitical association, similar to how small European states increase their weight and influence on the international stage through EU membership. However, Kyrgyzstan's opportunities for development under this scenario are limited by relatively slow progress in building full-fledged integration structures of the EAEU and CSTO.
4. “Entering the sphere of influence of China” — a highly probable scenario, considering the growing economic power of China and its geographical proximity. The main danger in implementing this scenario is related to the threat of ethnic and cultural dissolution. Although the main negative consequences lie somewhat beyond the chosen forecast horizon (2020), they must be taken into account in strategic planning. Additionally, there is a risk of copying the Chinese model of extensive development (using industrial production schemes that disregard environmental standards and are based on low-paid labor), which may lead to the loss of Kyrgyzstan's competitive advantages as a unique biospheric zone and the preservation or even increase of social instability in the country.
5. “Euro-Atlantic choice” — despite the apparent attractiveness of entering the sphere of influence of the most economically developed countries in the world, it carries significant threats, as the development of economically weak states in an open liberal economy system typically reinforces economic peripherality. This is evidenced by Kyrgyzstan's own experience with hasty and thoughtless accession to the WTO. The examples of the East Asian Tigers (Taiwan, South Korea, etc.) in relation to Kyrgyzstan are not conclusive, as their economic formation occurred under the conditions of fierce geopolitical confrontation during the Cold War, when the USA and NATO countries were extremely interested in forming strong allies in the Asia-Pacific region against the communist USSR and China. Furthermore, Kyrgyzstan's landlocked position increases its dependence on neighbors, through whose territories the main transport routes connecting it to the outside world pass. Kyrgyzstan's desire to play the role of a major transit hub can only be realized against the backdrop of good-neighborly relations with the major powers of the region. In these conditions, building the country's development strategy based on Euro-Atlantic orientation, from the perspective of key geopolitical factors affecting Kyrgyzstan's development, appears shortsighted.
Governance
In the medium term, the interests of the state will consist of protecting the constitutional order, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Kyrgyzstan, ensuring socio-political stability and economic development.
Correctly defined national interests allow for the selection of a justified (in terms of development goals, available resources, and capabilities) strategic perspective for the development of the state. Considering local specifics contributes to the identification and optimal use of existing socio-cultural features in the state and society necessary for its reform. International experience enables the state to successfully integrate into the global system, allowing it to understand the universal, generally accepted "code" of relations and be understood in turn.
An important element of implementing this program in practice becomes the creation of a modern state, adapted to the realities of globalization and capable of implementing a long-term reform program.
Kyrgyzstan was the first among the Central Asian states to embark on the path of democratic reforms and market transformations, which determined its high authority and positive image on the international stage and, consequently, support from developed democratic countries. In the early years of independence, Kyrgyzstan established the main institutions of democratic statehood and a multi-structured economy, achieved macroeconomic stabilization, and observed growth in gross domestic product. The country maintained social and interethnic harmony.
At the same time, it should be noted that in recent years, trends of authoritarianism and concentration of political power in a narrow circle (to the detriment of legislative and judicial branches of power) have been growing, and attempts have been made to exclude political parties, civil society, and public associations from the political life of the country. This has led to serious distortions in public consciousness.
Problems of a social and ideological nature have intensified, exacerbated by systemic manifestations of corruption that have affected all state institutions, unfair distribution of economic benefits and financial flows, and dishonest use of foreign aid. As a result, the opinion of the international community about Kyrgyzstan as a country on the path to democracy has somewhat wavered.
Currently, thanks to the popular revolution that occurred in March 2005, Kyrgyzstan is entering a kind of transitional period, during which the political leadership of Kyrgyzstan has identified the following priority tasks:
• To build a new architecture of power that does not allow a return to authoritarianism through constitutional reform and redistribution of power among all branches of the political system (state governance);
• To dismantle the corrupt system of state governance;
• To bring a new generation of young, highly qualified, and honest leaders and politicians into the management orbit;
• To implement a new economic policy that provides a favorable environment for sustainable economic growth;
• To ensure reliable protection of individual rights and freedoms;
• To create conditions for building a strong democratic state and a legal civil society by legislatively enshrining the role of political parties and civil associations in determining and controlling the implementation of state policy, including in the foreign policy sphere.
Kyrgyzstan is a multinational state. The presence of Russian, Uzbek, German, as well as Dungan, Uighur, and Korean diasporas is taken into account when strengthening bilateral relations of the republic with the Russian Federation, Uzbekistan, Germany, the People's Republic of China, and the Republic of Korea.
In the political sphere, the interests of the Kyrgyz Republic require a course that ensures internal political stability, territorial integrity, civil harmony, and democratization of state power and its institutions.
Regarding the five aforementioned development strategies that can be chosen by the leadership of the republic, experts have assessed Kyrgyzstan on the factor of “Governance” as follows:
• 5.5 units for the strategy “Eurasian integration,” which corresponds to the level of a great power;
• 4.5 units for the strategy “Flexible course,” which corresponds to the lower boundary of the level of a great power;
• 2.5 units for the strategy “Entering the sphere of influence of Kazakhstan,” which corresponds to the level of a regional power;
• 1.5 units for the strategy “Euro-Atlantic choice,” which corresponds to the lower level of a regional power;
• 1 unit for the strategy “Entering the sphere of influence of China,” which corresponds to the level of a small power.
Territory
Kyrgyzstan has significant geopolitical and geo-economic importance as a connecting bridge between the West and East, as well as North and South. In terms of its political and socio-economic parameters, Kyrgyzstan falls under the following categories: it continues to be in a transitional stage of its development; it belongs to the group of developing countries; it is a landlocked country.
In the current conditions of a multipolar world, for Kyrgyzstan — as a full-fledged subject of international law and a sovereign state with a legitimate government and a unitary form of state structure — the integrity of its territory will retain significance as a basic factor.
The importance of this factor shows a noticeable trend towards growth with the unification of the Eurasian space through regional ties — railroads, major hydropower plants, and communications based on information technologies.
The factor maintains the status quo in the variant of small territorial losses due to the establishment of borders with Uzbekistan and exchange processes to reduce enclaves by agreement with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
In other economic development scenarios, there is a trend towards a decrease in the specific values of the factor “territory,” which in practice means a deepening division between the North and South, fragmentation of development, that is, the absence of a unified economic space in the country. The small size of the country in the medium term will serve as an indicator of backwardness.
Overall, on the factor “Territory,” Kyrgyzstan, under any of the strategies, will remain at the level of a “small state” (1 unit), which, however, may be partially compensated by the development of integration processes within the frameworks of the strategies “Entering the sphere of influence of Kazakhstan” and “Eurasian integration.”
Natural Resources
Within the biospheric territories of Kyrgyzstan, clusters of ecology and agricultural production will develop, meaning that the production of environmentally friendly products and medicinal forms will be established. Kyrgyzstan is one of the possible natural testing grounds (training centers) for studying the conditions of humans, technology, and structures in extreme mountain conditions.
Kyrgyzstan is an international ecological donor in terms of sources of clean drinking water, biodiversity, and low levels of greenhouse gas emissions. Glaciers store 13 annual water runoff — this capital is significantly more valuable than the wealth of mineral resources.
Overall, experts — in accordance with the methodology of the strategic matrix (tables 3.6~3.10) — give a fairly high assessment of the factor “Natural Resources” of Kyrgyzstan primarily due to a good ecological balance and the presence of large recreational zones, as well as possessing water resources that are of particular value for Central Asia, the significance of which will grow. The range of assessments varies from the lower level of a great power when implementing the strategies “Flexible course” (4.5 units) and “Euro-Atlantic choice” (4.6 units) to its average values for the scenarios “Eurasian integration” (6 units) and “Entering the sphere of influence of Kazakhstan” (5.6 units). The difference in values is primarily due to the degree of accessibility of mineral resources in Kazakhstan and other CIS countries. For the strategy “Entering the sphere of influence of China,” experts give an assessment at the level of a regional power (4 units) due to the emerging trend of deteriorating ecological balance.
Population
The research organization Population Reference Bureau forecasts that the population of Kyrgyzstan will grow to 8.3 million by 2050. The natural growth rate (5 million people in 2005) is not significantly influenced by GDP dynamics, inflation levels, marriage and divorce ratios, the youth higher education enrollment rate, or migration. All this allows characterizing this social phenomenon as a demographic “explosion” after some decline in the mid-90s and assessing it as a strategic resource for the country's development.
In the first half of the 1990s, there was a large outflow of the population: people emigrated voluntarily for reasons of ethnic affiliation and economic considerations. All these movements led to changes in permanent residence. Recently, a new trend has emerged related to temporary migration. This is driven solely by economic reasons. These migration flows are an important factor in regional cooperation.
The total number of migrants from Kyrgyzstan constitutes 10% of the entire workforce. The surplus labor force, associated with the high birth rate in Central Asian countries, leads to the emergence of a large reserve of labor ready to fill niches in the labor markets of Russia and Kazakhstan. The existence of such a large contingent of labor working abroad has numerous economic, social, and human consequences for Kyrgyzstan. Various estimates suggest that the amount of remittances could range from $120 to $300 million, which is more than the gross inflow of foreign direct investment. According to many experts, remittances are one of the main reasons for the reduction of poverty recorded in recent years. Overall, regardless of the chosen development strategy, on the factor “Population,” Kyrgyzstan will be assessed at the level of a small power (1 unit) due to its small population.
Economy
National interests in the field of economics are fundamental and provide for overcoming crisis phenomena, maintaining sustainable growth that ensures integration into the world and regional economy on acceptable terms for Kyrgyzstan, as well as balanced solutions to socio-economic tasks.
Promoting the formation of an effective economy by attracting foreign investments, integrating the Kyrgyz Republic (KR) into the global and regional economic space, as well as ensuring economic security are the most important directions of foreign economic policy.
In practical terms, Kyrgyzstan's economic diplomacy is focused on implementing the following tasks:
• Strengthening the economic potential of the country through the development of optimal economic infrastructure;
• Modernizing the national economy by forming a more rational production structure with a high level of processing of natural resources and raw materials;
• Re-equipping industries with modern technologies, developing the export potential of priority sectors of the economy;
• Integrating into international and regional transport and communication infrastructure;
• Developing tourism as part of the international tourism industry based on strengthening the material base, modernizing existing and constructing new hotel and tourist complexes, and improving service levels;
• Taking advantage of Kyrgyzstan's membership in the World Trade Organization;
• Creating conditions for the most favored nation treatment in trade and maintaining this status for Kyrgyzstan, opening access to concessional loans and grants;
• Protecting the interests of domestic businesses in international economic relations;
• Facilitating the expansion of export niches for goods and services from Kyrgyzstan;
• Creating a favorable international legal framework for the activities of domestic entities in foreign economic activity;
• Facilitating measures to resolve the problem of Kyrgyzstan's external debt in bilateral and multilateral formats, including through the country's participation in various schemes and programs for its complete or partial cancellation or its exchange for ecological or social projects.
In foreign economic activity related to attracting foreign investments, loans, and grants, the political and economic consequences of implementing planned programs and projects are studied in terms of ensuring guarantees that they do not harm the country's security and bring economic benefits.
From the perspective of foreign policy, the greatest interest lies in integration not so much with medium-level developing countries (with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan) as with more technologically advanced countries — Russia and China. By 2020, the group of countries with the highest GDP will look as follows: China, the USA, the EU, Japan, Korea, India, Indonesia. The closest global economic players for Kyrgyzstan are Japan and the Asia-Pacific countries. Significant influence on the Central Asian region is exerted and will be exerted by Russia, the USA, the EU, Japan, China, and India.
Economic ties with Russia allow national exporters to survive. Russia will remain Kyrgyzstan's economic partner for a long time (at least until 2020) and its strategic partner in the field of security. However, the implementation of the Silk Road and TRASECA projects may contribute to the gradual displacement of Russia from Central Asia.
Kyrgyzstan is dependent on the IMF and the World Bank, where the USA plays a leading role. The interests of Russia and China limit American influence in the region. The promotion of democracy and liberal economics remains a priority in Kyrgyzstan's relations with the USA and the EU.
In the future, relations with a united Europe (EU), particularly with Germany, are anticipated. The “Europe-Asia” corridor and the Silk Road make Europe and China interested in the sovereignty and development of Central Asian countries. The largest donor to Kyrgyzstan is Japan. Japan and Germany are major shareholders of the ADB. Grants from the ADB and the World Bank received by Kyrgyzstan are predominantly of Japanese origin.
The markets of Central Asia, considering Kyrgyzstan's accession to the WTO, will integrate with the Chinese market. Exports to China from Kyrgyzstan are decreasing. Imports from China are increasing, as the GDP of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region exceeds the GDP of Kyrgyzstan by 20 times.
India is a member of the WTO and a nuclear power. By 2050, it will surpass in population and take leading positions in the global market. India is a maritime power, but in the medium term, it will gain access to electricity, fissile materials for nuclear power plants, and ensure the sale of its goods through Central Asia to Western Siberia. The southeastern gates of the land route are Kyrgyzstan. China's accession to the WTO creates conditions for reducing tariff barriers and expanding foreign economic ties. The share of China and India in Central Asia's foreign trade has significant reserves for expansion.
In the medium term, 50% of Kyrgyzstan's trading partners will still be CIS countries. In relations with Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan will use the shortage of water resources to the extent that it uses the country's gas dependence. Kyrgyzstan is in demand by Kazakhstan due to the lack of water and electricity in its southern regions. The southern regions of Kyrgyzstan use the cheap labor of Tajikistan and are supplied with petroleum products from there. The railway through Afghanistan may open Central Asia's access to the Indian Ocean.
Kyrgyzstan does not have sufficient volumes of regional and global level goods — oil, metals, and grain (as in Kazakhstan), gas, cotton, and gold (as in Uzbekistan). Moreover, the agriculture of its neighbors produces more goods. However, Kyrgyzstan's natural resources allow for the production of environmentally friendly products and medicines that are in demand in the global market. Kyrgyzstan can become a hub for electric communications and focus on electricity exports, the demand for which will grow.
Overall, the assessment of the factor “Economy” for Kyrgyzstan over the next 13 years until the forecast horizon (2020), according to experts, will not undergo significant changes and will be approximately the same for all strategies — 1.3 units.
Culture and Religion
In Central Asia, the privatization of the common regional historical and cultural space continues. In the field of education, each country has emerged and is spreading claims to exclusivity as the main player on the historical stage of the region. Central Asia is characterized by the immaturity of nations and statehood: the development of tribalism, regionalism, and clannishness; the mismatch of the Western form of organization (democratic institutions) with the content (the legacy of Eastern despotisms). The political culture of the population of Central Asia is characterized by paternalism — the guardianship of the state and society over certain social groups: children, the elderly, the disabled, etc.
Among the important internal factors, the increasing role of religion in society's life should also be noted. The constitutionally guaranteed freedom of conscience is conditioned by both internal and external reasons. It can contribute to strengthening the spiritual health of society. The revival of Islam opens the way to restoring ties with Muslim countries. At the same time, the Kyrgyz Republic adheres to the course of building a secular state, which corresponds to the cultural and historical features and sentiments of society.
The revival of Islam has been a response to the westernization of development. Islamization has manifested and continues to manifest as a way to distance oneself from the Western world. The population's adherence to religious fundamentalism is a reaction to rapid and shock modernization, a response to the consequences of modernization — poverty and destitution in cities and villages. The combination of the factor of protest poverty and hasty Islamization creates fertile ground for religious extremism.
There is no ascent up the developmental ladder of one and the same culture, as observed in the EU, but rather a replacement of one culture with another, qualitatively different from it. This gives rise to complete cultural illiteracy and socio-cultural gaps between generations. Layers of pre-Islamic and Islamic culture have been lost, layers of Soviet culture are being lost, and the continuity of cultural traditions is disrupted.
In the transitional period, in the medium term, Kyrgyzstan will politically orient itself towards the democratic values of the West, economically — towards the CIS (Eurasian civilization), and culturally — towards Islamic civilization.
Market reforms in the Kyrgyz Republic represent a return to an untraversed capitalist stage. The collapse of the USSR signifies a return to an untraversed feudalism. A civilizational gap arises between levels of culture within the country. The media disseminate the ideology of Western culture, while the local culture has mainly remained Soviet-nomadic. The collapse of the USSR and the assertion of sovereignty have led to a loss of orientation at the national level.
The change in mentality in the Kyrgyz Republic is facilitated by the import of "brains" (the work of representatives of international organizations); the import of education (the national program "Personnel of the 21st Century"); labor export; bilateral tourism; attracting foreign capital.
Thus, the assessments for the factor “Culture and Religion” for various strategic choices are as follows:
• “Flexible course” — 3.5;
• “Entering the sphere of influence of Kazakhstan” — 2.6;
• “Eurasian integration” — 4.2;
• “Entering the sphere of influence of China” — 1.7;
• “Euro-Atlantic choice” — 1.9.
All these assessments correspond to a range from the lower to the upper level of a regional power. The main contribution to the change in assessment values comes from the predicted state of interethnic and interfaith relations.
Science and Education
Experts have calculated that if Kyrgyzstan enters the regional Central Asian higher education market (360,000 students at a payment of $6,000 per year), by 2020 it could generate up to $2 billion in GDP. Therefore, education can be considered a strategic resource for Kyrgyzstan.
National interests in culture, education, and science are inextricably linked to the tasks of human development, largely determining the success of all reforms. It is extremely important to preserve and enhance traditional values, as well as to form a new national-state ideology that unites all layers and groups of society.
Ensuring national interests in the information sphere implies respecting citizens' rights to guaranteed access to information, promoting national cultural heritage, protecting traditional cultural values, countering anti-social and totalitarian views and ideas, and widely implementing modern telecommunication technologies.
The most effective path to modernizing the country lies through the education system. The export of knowledge and information is a way to increase economic growth without large investments. The condition is strict licensing of higher education institutions based on education quality. The establishment of a regional organization of education exporters will assist this endeavor.
Updating Kyrgyzstan's external image is a demand of the times. The scale of the tasks facing Kyrgyzstan at the current stage of development requires conducting proactive and flexible explanatory, informational, and propaganda work. In this context, available information and communication resources of local, regional, and global coverage should be utilized to ensure the national interests of the country on the international stage.
Kyrgyzstan uses the resources at its disposal to ensure a positive perception abroad, awaken friendly relations towards the people of Kyrgyzstan from the global community and political circles, and inform them of complete and accurate information about the changes in the path of state-building in the republic.
Overall, the forecast for the development of the factor “Science and Education” for various strategies primarily depends on the parameters of the development of information technologies and the level of secondary education for each of the strategies. The strategy “Eurasian integration” has the greatest potential for development (5 units) — the lower level of a great power. This can be achieved through the partial restoration of cooperative ties in the scientific and technical complex and attracting funds for scientific research in Kyrgyzstan through special programs of the EAEU member states.
Assessments for other strategies range from the average level of a regional power — 2.8 units (“Entering the sphere of influence of China,” table 3.20) to the upper level of a regional power:
• “Flexible course” — 3.8;
• “Entering the sphere of influence of Kazakhstan” — 3.8;
• “Euro-Atlantic choice” — 4.3.
Army (Armed Forces)
Kyrgyzstan perceives itself as a frontline state. The replacement of Russian border guards with its own at the state border, the Batken wars, the ongoing threat of incursions by international terrorists, and the saturation of the territory with drugs and firearms all determine the growth of forced hidden military expenditures comparable to the republic's budgetary costs. The introduction of two foreign bases and entry into military-political alliances represent attempts to reduce the unbearable military burden.
Under the strategy “Flexible course,” the risks of traditional security threats and challenges will significantly decrease. Further reform and modernization of the army will follow. At the same time, weapons, military equipment, and gear will be supplied from various states, mainly from Russia and China. The NATO air bases and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) stationed in Kyrgyzstan will not be withdrawn from the country in the foreseeable future.
Currently, various international organizations are working on security issues in Central Asia. The specificity of Kyrgyzstan's position is that the country participates in all international organizations that strive for peace and security in the region. This reflects the overall political course towards exclusively peaceful resolution of conflicts and friendship with all countries wishing to cooperate with Kyrgyzstan.
Key organizations that have previously dealt with and continue to actively participate in security issues in Central Asia include (in chronological order of their establishment) the Commonwealth of Independent States, the CSTO, NATO through the “Partnership for Peace” program, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the International Anti-Terrorist Coalition.
The SCO will show the greatest activity among regional organizations in the field of security. This situation has become possible due to the cooperation between Russia and China, the potential of which compensates for the insufficient military capabilities of Central Asian countries.
Overall, the forecast for the development of the Armed Forces of Kyrgyzstan does not have significant differences for various strategies of its geopolitical positioning (assessment — 2.6 units), as this factor will largely depend on resource constraints. At the same time, maintaining security guarantees within the framework of the CSTO and improving the mechanisms of interaction among member states of this organization significantly enhances Kyrgyzstan's defense security level.
Foreign Policy
On the global stage, processes of forming new centers of power and influence have intensified. Developed Western countries are rapidly increasing their economic and political influence in the world. The Asia-Pacific region is dynamically developing, becoming one of the most influential economic and political poles in the world. China and Russia, seeing themselves as important centers of the emerging multipolar world, oppose the domination of any one power or group of countries in world affairs.
At the same time, the USA is intensifying efforts aimed at maintaining its leadership. The USA has taken unprecedented military-political measures to combat international terrorism and extremism on a global scale; conducts operations in Iraq and Afghanistan; leads an anti-terrorist coalition of states, of which Kyrgyzstan is a participant.
The complex process of peacefully establishing Afghanistan, with broad and massive political-military and financial-economic support from the international community, is overall proceeding ambiguously and will take a long time.
Military potential and force resources in international life continue to retain their significance. Major centers of power have embarked on a path of accelerating the arms race. At the same time, there is a trend towards increasing the importance of military force at the regional and local levels. However, it should be noted that while the significance of military force in relations between states remains, economic, political, scientific-technical, ecological, and informational factors are playing an increasingly important role.
Religious, national, and racial extremism, international terrorism remain dangerous tools for solving geopolitical tasks, negatively influencing the overall development process of humanity. A number of international terrorist organizations have exceeded the capabilities of individual states in terms of their financial, military, human potential, and ideological impact.
One of the defining factors of the global process is the increasing gap between the industrial North, on the threshold of an information society, and the lagging South.
In turn, cooperation-competition along the South-South line is increasing, driven by competing socio-economic and national interests and unresolved problems. At the same time, differentiation among developing countries themselves is deepening.
In the context of deepening energy, raw material, resource, and environmental problems, competition between major centers of power is intensifying to ensure access to natural resources and markets of developing countries. The combination of divergent trends suggests that the process of establishing a new world order will be prolonged and complex.
External Regional Factors
Kyrgyzstan borders Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan — friendly states that are close in cultural-historical, ethnic, and confessional relations. Kyrgyzstan actively participates in various integration processes, in which other countries of the Central Asia region are involved to varying degrees.
Unfavorable factors include the intra-continental position of the region, the lack of direct access to global communications, the weak development of transport and communication infrastructure, and the remoteness from centers of economic and political influence.
Kyrgyzstan's proximity to China creates favorable conditions for developing trade and economic cooperation with this country, which is also a member of the World Trade Organization, for diversifying and modernizing transport infrastructure, and overcoming national isolation.
Thus, considering the possible losses and gains from implementing a particular strategy, the following can be stated.
The strategy “Flexible course” implies movement towards a balanced and consistent multi-vector foreign policy of the state. Overall, this is a fairly successful strategy for a situation where no leading center in the world and the region feels strong enough to assert unconditional dominance. A situation of certain subjectivity of governance arises within the country itself.
At the same time, the weakening of state power in the countries of the region, as the experience of Kyrgyzstan shows, can be exploited by external forces to attempt to change the geopolitical configuration of the region. Therefore, a fairly successful strategy for the country's development based on a flexible course carries the danger of a rapid loss of stability due to the weakening of state governance, especially in conditions of intensifying external power struggles for influence in the region.
Perhaps this strategy is the worst in terms of ensuring stability, as it creates a sense of unoccupied geopolitical space for external forces and pushes them towards active actions in attempts to change the situation in their favor.
The assessment of the foreign policy component for this strategy is 6.6 units (table 3.23), which corresponds to the upper level of a great power. The complexity of implementing this strategy lies in the need for virtuoso conduct of foreign policy, which is itself difficult for a small country with limited resources.
The strategy “Entering the sphere of influence of Kazakhstan” is accompanied, on the one hand, by the loss of part of sovereignty and the possibility of territorial fragmentation, but, on the other hand, by an increase in the standard of living for the majority of the population of the country due to real economic growth. At the same time, the scheme of actual delegation of powers in choosing strategic development to a more powerful, but still comparable in its potential state, does not seem entirely justified.
The assessment for this strategy is 1.8 units — the lower threshold level of a regional power.
“Eurasian integration.” The goal of this strategy will be the economic and military-political integration of the post-Soviet space. By 2020, a unified economic and defense space of Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan may be formed.
For Kyrgyzstan, the priority areas of integration cooperation are:
• The creation of a regional water-energy consortium with the transfer of key infrastructure elements into its ownership. In the consortium, each country in the region has its share. The consortium allows for consideration of the economic, social, and ecological effects of the existing system of water regulation and energy production. It provides a rational basis for choosing a mode of operation beneficial for each country. Kyrgyzstan should receive a portion of the income from irrigated agriculture in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan and cover part of the damage caused by flooding in the lower reaches of the Syr Darya River; in turn, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan should receive their share of income from energy production at the Naryn cascade of hydropower plants. Of course, determining the amount of costs and benefits associated with this is a very complex political and technical task, but it can nevertheless be solved;
• The creation of mechanisms for economic cooperation, including trade, investment, transit, and the development of transport infrastructure, based on mandatory compliance with all rules and the application of sanctions for violations. Such mechanisms could be based on WTO rules.
• Collaboration in the field of security, protecting the countries of the region from the threats of terrorism, extremism, and organized crime.
“Eurasian integration” is the most attractive scenario, as a high level of foreign policy implementation is achieved not through its own limited resources, but through the combined power of the Eurasian Union. The assessment of the scenario is 7 units — the upper level of a great power.
“Entering the sphere of influence of China.” As already noted, this strategy entails dissolving into a much stronger neighbor. The logical outcome is a “Foreign Policy” level of 1 point, which corresponds to the level of a small state.
“Euro-Atlantic choice.” As previously noted, this strategy is unpromising for Kyrgyzstan due to its intra-continental location. A radical option for seeking independence from the most powerful continental neighbors practically means turning the country into a colony of a third, distant power. The most vivid example in the CIS space is Georgia. However, for Kyrgyzstan, this scenario is even more difficult to implement due to the peculiarities of the country's geopolitical position.
The assessment of the factor “Foreign Policy” for this strategy is 2.1 units — the lower level of a regional power.