- The issue of energy is crucial for raising the economy of Kyrgyzstan. Over the past twenty years, practically nothing has been invested there, and the systems have been severely exploited. We have lost the level of energy from the Soviet era. But in the last five years, the situation has changed: distribution networks are being put in order, new transformers are being installed, and hundreds of kilometers of cable lines have been replaced. The transporters have also improved: ‘National Electric Stations’ and their high-voltage lines: the ‘Datka’ substation, which supplies the south, and the ‘Datka-Kemin’ and ‘Kemin’ substations have provided us with an internal ring, energy independence... However, in terms of generating internal electricity, the capacities built in previous years have remained at the same level, and we find ourselves in a difficult situation. Because of this, we limit ‘three-phase’ connections, especially where they are used for heating. Previously, consumers used 17% of electricity; now they consume 67% of the generated energy, while industry and business account for only 17%, - he summarizes.
The reason for the improper distribution of electricity and the irrational use of energy resources is the lack of specialists capable of calculating the risks of the industry.
- We previously did not consider risks and spoke about prospects without addressing them. Yet risk is an integral part of any activity that can affect the solution of industry tasks! It can also affect the overall efficiency of the industry, losing the reliability of the energy sector, which is already at its limit. This is evidenced by numerous outages: before 2010, there were 12-13 thousand outages per year. Now there are 7-8 thousand outages per year. The identification of industry risks, their sources, and monitoring has never been conducted by us. Each energy system facility has tried to do something in this direction, but globally, nothing has been done to counter risks and minimize them – there is no such methodology in the republic! Therefore, I propose first to classify what this is, and then apply it to examples of energy facilities. I believe risks can be divided into internal and external. Internal risks are strategic when the leader or system employees make mistakes, operational risks occur when system employees make mistakes, leading to outages. And technological risks are associated with hydroelectric power stations and other equipment that have long exceeded their service life. 8,720 hours are annually worked by 4 units of ‘Toktogul’. They should operate at 44%, but this is not happening – hence the wear of the system. And people say that all equipment needs to be replaced. For example, today we are receiving investments for the Toktogul HPP and replacing units. But it would be worth first conducting a performance monitoring, preventive maintenance, capacity checks, and trying to reduce the load without repairs and redirect funds to other needs, - the expert believes. - Kyrgyz citizens, whether energy workers want it or not, are building houses with warm floors, opening production and businesses – this is also an internal risk. And electricity consumption is growing. External risks include political tensions between countries, as seen in the case of Kambar-Ata and the Upper Naryn cascade of HPPs, pricing risks when tariffs are set not by the company but by an independent organization, and market risks related to purchasing coal at different prices. How do risks work? For example, the Upper Naryn cascade of HPPs. All work is currently halted, and nothing has started on Kambar-Ata-1, while for Kambar-Ata-2, we are trying to install the second unit. In this case, there will be regulatory risks because after commissioning, the external tariff will be about 9 cents, while we will not be able to sell electricity in the country at this price! We have a social tariff in the country, not an economic one! Was it worth building Kambar-Ata-2 in the absence of Kambar-Ata-1? Even one unit, when operating continuously, can drain 60 million cubic meters of water from the reservoir daily, while we are trying to push a second one in, which will end up running idle in the future. Is it worth investing money there or addressing other energy issues – the answer is obvious.
In addition, during his speech, the energy expert also expressed his views on other controversial issues in the industry: the termination of agreements on the construction of HPPs with Russia and the republic's entry into the CASA-1000 project.