The Water Issue
One possibility is a form of revenge by the Uzbek leadership over water disputes. The transboundary hydropower plants that Kyrgyzstan intended to build with Russia, which Islam Karimov believed could provoke a military conflict in the region, will not be constructed for now: the agreement for their construction was terminated in early 2016, and a new investor has yet to be found. However, there was another significant water incident between the countries, caused by the Orto-Tokoy Reservoir in the Ala-Buka district on the Kassansay River, which shares its name with a hydroscheme in the Naryn region of the Kyrgyz Republic. Previously, it served both states, but according to a government decree from the Kyrgyz Republic dated November 18, 2015, it was transferred to the state ownership of Kyrgyzstan along with the complex of hydraulic structures. The Uzbek side has repeatedly requested permission for its specialists to inspect the reservoir, claiming it poses a threat to the territory of the republic and could cause a flood if the dam breaks. However, Kyrgyzstan did not allow the specialists, which included deputies from the Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources and the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Uzbekistan, officials from the Namangan region, and employees of the State Committee for Land Resources, Geodesy, Cartography, and State Cadastre. They justified the refusal by stating that repair work should only be conducted by Kyrgyz specialists on Kyrgyz land.
- Apparently, the current blockade of the road in the disputed area in the Ala-Buka district, which is used by Kyrgyz citizens, is Uzbekistan's response. Nearby are disputed areas "Turbase" and "Pioneer Camp," which belong to Kyrgyzstan but are effectively used by the Uzbek side. If we are to resolve the issue with "mirror" methods, Kyrgyzstan could also block these areas and prevent Uzbek citizens from passing through. But such a path would lead us all to a dead end. Such issues should only be resolved through negotiations, - believes Kurbanbay Iskandarov, the special representative of the Kyrgyz Republic government on border issues and the first deputy head of the cabinet of ministers.
The Third Revolution?
Another viewpoint, openly expressed in social media by both experts and civil society, is that the opposition is destabilizing the situation based on patriotic sentiments, potentially leading to civil war.
- The West has allocated a large tranche to our liberal opposition. In response to the Eurasian Economic Union, they want to incite bloodshed in Central Asia, moving the war from Syria closer to Russia. There is a dispute over 38 hectares at our border. Both sides have rolled out military equipment and troops. Opposition leaders want to stir up this situation. Plus, there are plans for a large rally in the south on March 24. They want to seize power there and bring back Bakiev to dictate terms to the center. In response, the north of the country will rise up. After two coups and the Osh massacre, the population is armed with many weapons, grenades, and ammunition. It could explode in a way that would be catastrophic. Additionally, our Islamic radicals, who have been trained in ISIS camps, are actively involved. They are supported by thugs from Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Afghanistan. There are many radicals, and they did not go to Syria. They have been instructed to stay in place and wait for the right moment. Ultimately, they want all countries to become mired in a massive conflict. Atambaev is like a thorn in their side. When the chaos starts, the radicals in Kazakhstan will also raise their heads. For someone, Nazarbayev is also like a thorn in the eye. Karimov has long been a target for the IDU, a creature of the West. In Tajikistan, the border will become a transit point for radicals from Afghanistan. Then refugees will flow not to Europe, but to Russia. And with them, the radicals will bring chaos. In those Muslim countries, there are also plenty of radicals. We declare that we do not want to be Syria, Libya, Iraq, Yemen, or Somalia. We want to remain Kyrgyzstan! – writes well-known lawyer Azamat Bulatov on his Facebook page.
They protested, protested but did not achieve anything
This theory is partly confirmed by the hasty departure of Prime Minister Temir Sariev to the region. He calmed his compatriots and intended to meet with the opposition organizers of the rallies in the south of the country, who plan to use the issue of disputed Kyrgyz-Tajik and Kyrgyz-Uzbek border territories in their speeches. According to the official, protests will yield nothing – only civilized dialogue can resolve the problem. Since the emergence of the disputed situation along the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border, relevant work at the foreign policy level has been ongoing, and additional steps in the form of rallies, pickets, and marches appear to be provocations that could destroy the already fragile peace between the two countries.
- There have been wars over border disputes, but some pseudo-patriots are trying to use the current dispute at the border for their selfish purposes, stirring up the people. However, it should be understood that such methods do not resolve border issues. I am grateful to the people who understand the situation, - he noted in his speech to the residents of the Ala-Buka district. - The border issue arose because the president and the government took decisive steps. The most important thing is that we must talk to all countries on equal terms. And the current conflict at the border will be resolved. We have developed a step-by-step plan for resolving the situation, agreed with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kyrgyz Republic, consisting of 16 points. In resolving border issues, we must act through legal methods. There is no point in seeking reasons for holding rallies and pickets. We need this the least right now, as the country's economy has just begun to stabilize. Canals are being built, housing and social facilities are being constructed, military salaries are increasing, and military equipment is being modernized. We will resolve border issues, but this requires time and a diplomatic approach. Such issues are never resolved by force. I want to assure you that the relevant state structures are working on the delimitation and demarcation of the state border.
However, despite the calls for calm, residents of the administrative center of the Aksy district - the city of Kerben - gathered for a rally due to the situation at the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border. The rally, organized by the opposition, attracted over 300 local residents, and opposition leaders Bektur Asanov, Kubanychbek Kadyrbekov, and Azimbek Beknazarov arrived, claiming they had visited the disputed border area and seen Uzbek violators with their own eyes. Sariev addressed them and assured that the situation would be resolved peacefully.
- We have contacted the CSTO and are holding consultations with them. The undocumented areas must be approved according to international standards, and no one should violate this requirement. What is required from us today is to provide reliable information. However, it should be understood that there are state matters that we cannot discuss. We have all the necessary documents to resolve border issues peacefully, - he noted.
The official's words were not met with much enthusiasm by those gathered, and he could not stay long at the rally due to his travel schedule. After Sariev's departure, politician Kamchybek Tashiyev arrived to address the Aksy residents, taking the podium and calling for the preservation of Kyrgyz lands. The participants of the rally were aggressive: they called for blocking the canals that supply water to neighboring Uzbekistan, banning the import of vegetables and fruits from Uzbekistan, and halting business relations in the border areas of the republic... However, the gathering ended peacefully: after signing a resolution and handing it to representatives of the authorities, the protesters and opposition representatives dispersed.