The Weather Predictor from the People, the Calculator Manake
The experiments of the well-known weather predictor from the entire Issyk-Kul coast, the calculator Manake, are very interesting. He warned of upcoming weather changes based on clouds and celestial bodies, the color of the clouds, their direction, nature, and speed of movement, and their distance from the Earth's surface. Based on his observations, Manake claimed, for example, that if dark or black clouds move quickly from the west in summer or winter, then rain should be expected in spring, and snowstorms in winter. The same weather changes are foretold by multicolored clouds. The knowledge of the calculator Manake accurately reflects reality. Clouds form when water vapor cools and consist of water droplets or ice crystals, so the appearance of clouds always heralds rain or snow. If layered rain clouds or cumulus rain clouds appear in a clear sky, a downpour may occur, turning into hail. K.G. Paustovsky said that clouds are "exact signals of the weather. They are the celestial Morse code. The key is to know how to decipher it."
There are popular sayings: Bulut ala, jer cholo — Colorful clouds, the ground is wet and muddy; Bulut bardabarsynba, olum bardakopsunbo — With clouds, do not consider yourself rich (clouds often bring heavy rain, hail, snow, etc., which can destroy grain crops and livestock in a matter of minutes), in the presence of death—numerous in kinship (death can take the lives of loved ones), etc.
In Turkey, there is still a custom where every year on November 8, experienced old sailors gather and determine what kind of winter it will be, harsh or warm, based on the color, appearance, and movement of the clouds. Such gatherings happen annually.
The forecast based on clouds is not always accurate for the entire year, but for short periods, it is generally correct.
The calculator Manake made weather forecasts not only based on clouds but also on halos—a bright circle or "crown" that sometimes forms around the Sun and Moon. He said: "If the Moon has a halo, there will be no drought; the cow will calve and there will be milk; if the Sun has a halo, prepare the shovel, there will be a lot of snow and it will get cold." The inner part of the halos around the Sun and Moon has a reddish color, while the outer part is blue-violet or green. The shapes of these halos are very diverse; sometimes only part of the halo is visible. Halos arise in cirrostratus clouds due to the refraction of sunlight or moonlight in the ice crystals that make up these clouds, which veil the sky before bad weather. Therefore, halos around the Sun and Moon herald cool weather and rain in summer, and warming or snowstorms in winter, as they indicate the presence of cirrostratus clouds—harbingers of cyclones.
Halos are visible on foggy days and nights; they can also be observed when the Sun and Moon are covered by a thin layer of clouds.
The color of the halo and the circle spreads—its outer side is red, while the inner side is blue. The sizes of halos also vary. If the halo increases, it is a sign of upcoming good, clear weather; a small halo indicates the approach of bad weather, as large particles (ice crystals or water droplets) are present in the atmosphere.
By the rise of the daytime luminary, the experienced calculator determined what the upcoming day would be like, and by the sunset—what the weather would be like in the coming days:
Batarada Kun kyzaritsky tartsa,
Ayalı k uul teregendey suyun.
Chygarda Kun kyzar sa,
Elike joo tiygendei kuyn.
If at sunset the Sun is crimson—
Rejoice, as if your wife has given birth to a son.
If at sunrise the Sun is red—
Mourn, as if enemies have attacked your relatives.
Indeed, clear, dry weather turns into unstable weather with rain and thunderstorms if the morning dawn is reddish-brown or crimson-red, resembling the glow of a distant large fire. This color is explained by a large amount of water vapor in the lower layer of the atmosphere, as countless dust particles with moisture settled on them scatter the yellow, orange, and red rays of the Sun the most.
Such a crimson dawn also warns of a possible increase in wind: Kyzarip chykkan kun katuu shamaldan da kabar beret—Crimson dawns in the morning indicate strong winds.
In summer, a red morning dawn foretells rain, while in winter, it foretells a snowstorm.
Clear good weather is heralded by a clean sunset, transitioning from yellow to green or from orange to yellow, and then to green. Observing the sunset, the calculator saw that a bright yellow, pink, and yellow-pink evening dawn always foretells clear, stable, and dry weather.
People say: Kun batkan zhakty kara bulut kaptasa—ertesi jamgyrdy kut—Cloudiness at sunset—wait for rain.
The Illiterate Calculator with a Phenomenal Memory
It is known that about 90 percent of all cyclones move from west to east. Since the Sun sets in the west, it is clear that it is often covered by cloud masses of cyclones in the west. Moving at a speed of 30-40 kilometers per hour, cyclones reach the observation point of sunset the day after their formation. Of course, not every cloud is associated with a cyclone, but the appearance of cirrus clouds in the western part of the horizon of our republic is often a signal of an approaching cyclone.
Manake systematically observed the planet Jupiter (in Kyrgyz, Eshik Zhyldyz or Eshik kyrgan), especially in winter. He believed that if Jupiter appears briefly and then hides, becoming almost invisible, then the winter will be moderately warm; if Jupiter is visible throughout the night, then the winter will be harsh, with cold winds. Manake said: Chagyrmak zhyldyz chort ayaz—Clearly visible stars indicate an increase in frost.
Indeed, there is a connection between these natural phenomena. Jupiter appears and soon hides when the upper layers of the atmosphere are opaque: it is polluted with dust particles, ash, gases, or clouds have thickened in it. The Earth is surrounded by a shell that prevents heat from escaping; it retains heat for a long time, and therefore the coming days will be warm. However, if the atmosphere is free of dust and clouds (Jupiter is very clearly visible for a long time), then the Earth's heat escapes quickly, which is why the following days are often cold and harsh. Atmospheric optics specialists have obtained irrefutable evidence that when the atmosphere is polluted with a huge number of tiny particles of ash and gas during powerful eruptions of several volcanoes (for example, Krakatoa, Ruiz, Etna, and others), the temperature on the planet's surface can sharply decrease, leading to various unforeseen abrupt climate changes.
The calculator Manake explained to people: Bul eshek zhyldyz jakshylygyn karmatsa jer betinde egin, chop jakshy chygat da el tok kelip, maldar bat irdenishyet—With the favorable influence of Jupiter on Earth, the harvest is good, grass grows abundantly, and livestock fatten quickly. Indeed, as astrophysicists have established, Jupiter, along with its moon Io, acts as a kind of generator of powerful electromagnetic waves, which are very beneficial for the Earth's atmosphere. He also closely monitored Saturn—Achyq sargyzh zhyldyz. He said: Bul achyq sargyzh zhyldyz, abaiyrynyn keskin vzgorushuna oz taasirin tiigizet—This yellow star actively influences weather changes. Science has now established that Saturn, due to its rings, acts as a gigantic cosmic synchrophasotron: it accelerates ions of various gases to speeds close to cosmic and bombards the surrounding space with them. When a powerful stream of these ions reaches Earth, it can lead to health deterioration in people, outbreaks of epidemics, etc.
On the other hand, it is known that the planets orbiting the Sun influence its activity. For this reason, there is a sharp increase in solar activity every 11 years, which is accompanied by corresponding climate changes on Earth. The brightness of comets and the frequency of their sightings are related to solar activity. The 11-year pulsation of solar activity can be traced by the growth of tree rings, the recurrence of earthquakes (for example, in India and China), and the flooding of rivers (for example, the Nile over the past two thousand years).
By observing atmospheric changes in winter, Manake could predict what the weather would be like in spring: dry or rainy.
Manake determined the time for sowing based on the condition of the soil, taking it in hand from the overturned layer. If the soil stuck together in a lump, Manake considered it too early to plow—the soil was wet; if the soil crumbled, it was time to plow. He advised farmers to use good seeds for sowing and fertilize the soil with manure: Zhakshy uruktan mol tushum alasyn—Good seed—good yield; Aydoono ken, kyk chachsan emgegin tekke ketpeit—Fertilize the fields generously—the land will reward you.
In spring during sowing, Manake said: Urondu tushke cheyin gana sepkile, antken tush oogondan kiyin suuk shamal bolup urukka ziyan kelti—Sow seeds only until noon, as the strong wind blowing after noon cools the soil and delays the rapid germination of seeds. Wheat seeds, as is known, consist of 30 percent water, so they can freeze and not germinate if cooled too much. Seeds germinate at temperatures no lower than 14-16 degrees Celsius; if the soil cools below these values, the seeds will not germinate, and consequently, there will be no harvest.
Manake was a good connoisseur of the ancient Kyrgyz calendar, toghool. He believed that toghool could also fall on even numbers. In complex calculations, the illiterate calculator was aided by his phenomenal memory.