Issyk-Kul Weather Forecaster Essepchi Manake
The Weather Predictor from the People, the Calculator Manake
The experiments of the well-known weather predictor from the entire Issyk-Kul coast, the calculator Manake, are very interesting. He warned of upcoming weather changes based on clouds and celestial bodies, the color of the clouds, their direction, nature, and speed of movement, and their distance from the Earth's surface. Based on his observations, Manake claimed, for example, that if dark or black clouds move quickly from the west in summer or winter, then rain should be expected in spring, and snowstorms in winter. The same weather changes are foretold by multicolored clouds. The knowledge of the calculator Manake accurately reflects reality. Clouds form when water vapor cools and consist of water droplets or ice crystals, so the appearance of clouds always heralds rain or snow. If layered rain clouds or cumulus rain clouds appear in a clear sky, a downpour may occur, turning into hail. K.G. Paustovsky said that clouds are "exact signals of the weather. They are the celestial Morse code. The key is to know how to decipher it."
There are popular sayings: Bulut ala, jer cholo — Colorful clouds, the ground is wet and muddy; Bulut bardabarsynba, olum bardakopsunbo — With clouds, do not consider yourself rich (clouds often bring heavy rain, hail, snow, etc., which can destroy grain crops and livestock in a matter of minutes), in the presence of death—numerous in kinship (death can take the lives of loved ones), etc.
In Turkey, there is still a custom where every year on November 8, experienced old sailors gather and determine what kind of winter it will be, harsh or warm, based on the color, appearance, and movement of the clouds. Such gatherings happen annually.
The forecast based on clouds is not always accurate for the entire year, but for short periods, it is generally correct.
The calculator Manake made weather forecasts not only based on clouds but also on halos—a bright circle or "crown" that sometimes forms around the Sun and Moon. He said: "If the Moon has a halo, there will be no drought; the cow will calve and there will be milk; if the Sun has a halo, prepare the shovel, there will be a lot of snow and it will get cold." The inner part of the halos around the Sun and Moon has a reddish color, while the outer part is blue-violet or green. The shapes of these halos are very diverse; sometimes only part of the halo is visible. Halos arise in cirrostratus clouds due to the refraction of sunlight or moonlight in the ice crystals that make up these clouds, which veil the sky before bad weather. Therefore, halos around the Sun and Moon herald cool weather and rain in summer, and warming or snowstorms in winter, as they indicate the presence of cirrostratus clouds—harbingers of cyclones.
Halos are visible on foggy days and nights; they can also be observed when the Sun and Moon are covered by a thin layer of clouds.
The color of the halo and the circle spreads—its outer side is red, while the inner side is blue. The sizes of halos also vary. If the halo increases, it is a sign of upcoming good, clear weather; a small halo indicates the approach of bad weather, as large particles (ice crystals or water droplets) are present in the atmosphere.
By the rise of the daytime luminary, the experienced calculator determined what the upcoming day would be like, and by the sunset—what the weather would be like in the coming days:
Batarada Kun kyzaritsky tartsa,
Ayalı k uul teregendey suyun.
Chygarda Kun kyzar sa,
Elike joo tiygendei kuyn.
If at sunset the Sun is crimson—
Rejoice, as if your wife has given birth to a son.
If at sunrise the Sun is red—
Mourn, as if enemies have attacked your relatives.
Indeed, clear, dry weather turns into unstable weather with rain and thunderstorms if the morning dawn is reddish-brown or crimson-red, resembling the glow of a distant large fire. This color is explained by a large amount of water vapor in the lower layer of the atmosphere, as countless dust particles with moisture settled on them scatter the yellow, orange, and red rays of the Sun the most.
Such a crimson dawn also warns of a possible increase in wind: Kyzarip chykkan kun katuu shamaldan da kabar beret—Crimson dawns in the morning indicate strong winds.
In summer, a red morning dawn foretells rain, while in winter, it foretells a snowstorm.
Clear good weather is heralded by a clean sunset, transitioning from yellow to green or from orange to yellow, and then to green. Observing the sunset, the calculator saw that a bright yellow, pink, and yellow-pink evening dawn always foretells clear, stable, and dry weather.
People say: Kun batkan zhakty kara bulut kaptasa—ertesi jamgyrdy kut—Cloudiness at sunset—wait for rain.
