Robert Kagan, a prominent American political scientist, warns of grim prospects in his new article for The Atlantic: in his opinion, by 2026, Donald Trump will have completely dismantled the liberal world order that the United States has built over the past eighty years. He argues that American dominance was based not only on military power but also on a "great deal," where Washington acted as a guarantor of security for its allies in exchange for their loyalty and absence of aggressive actions. However, this era, according to Kagan, has come to an end, as Trump has abandoned the role of global arbiter, deeming it too costly.
Such an approach, in the expert's view, will lead to a return to the dangerous multipolarity characteristic of the 19th century. Kagan reminds us that throughout history, periods of "balance of power" among great powers have always been accompanied by local conflicts and fierce struggles for territory. The world that was formed after 1945 was the result of conscious efforts to avoid this vicious cycle. The U.S. did not seek to directly exploit its partners but rather connected them through investments and alliances, restraining the aggression of regional players. Now, as Washington itself violates established rules, countries like Germany, Japan, Poland, and South Korea will be forced to completely rearm and fight for their survival.
Kagan emphasizes that modern Western society, accustomed to decades of relative comfort under the "American umbrella," is utterly unprepared for the new realities. Competition for markets is transforming into military conflicts over resources and spheres of influence, and smaller states will have to choose between vassal dependence and war. The expert believes that by undermining the moral authority of the U.S. and destroying the system of trust among partners, Trump is turning the country from a leader of the free world into an international pariah. If Americans previously thought that maintaining global stability required significant costs, in the new, fractured world, the price of life will become unbearable for them.
