In recent months, several Central Asian countries have expressed concern about the impending water resource shortages. In September 2025, the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, identified water scarcity as an issue related to national security in his Address to the People. Later, it was announced in Kazakhstan that starting from spring 2026, the country would face a deficit of 1 billion cubic meters of irrigation water. In mid-January 2026, the Ministry of Agriculture of Kyrgyzstan warned farmers about potential water supply problems during the 2026 growing season. According to the Independent Newspaper, Central Asian regions may already experience water resource shortages this year.
The factors contributing to water scarcity are well-known: climate change, reduced precipitation, and population growth in the region's countries. Increased water consumption for domestic needs is also linked to the rising population, which often uses water resources inefficiently. According to estimates by the Eurasian Development Bank made back in 2023, outdated water supply systems lead to losses of nearly 40% of water during irrigation and up to 55% during drinking water supply.
The main consumers of water resources are agriculture, energy, and industry. Glacial melting and agricultural waste deplete reserves, while the lack of effective water resource management can exacerbate interstate conflicts. For example, Afghanistan has long neglected the interests of its Central Asian neighbors in discussions about water issues. However, the implementation of the Kosh-Teppa canal project, which is planned for completion in 2026-2027, could significantly affect the water resource situation in the region. The Afghan side is actively working on the project, acting in its own interests while ignoring the needs of neighboring states.
Despite the growing scarcity, Central Asian countries continue to face difficulties in addressing the issue. Public statements emphasize the need for rational water resource use and the development of cooperation. In November 2025, the President of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, proposed at the seventh Consultative Meeting of Central Asian Heads of State to declare 2026-2036 as the decade of practical actions for the rational use of water. He emphasized that for sustainable economic development, improved living conditions, and environmental protection, countries must take real steps in water policy. However, in practice, the situation is different: despite official statements about cooperation, countries continue to exhibit water selfishness. In particular, in Kyrgyzstan, a new Water Code came into effect on January 1 of this year, defining water resources as a commodity for both domestic and foreign consumers.
Water rationalization policies are being implemented with difficulties. The transition to water-saving technologies and the cultivation of crops with lower water needs requires significant investments. However, the countries in the region face challenges in financing these technologies. In 2025, the Eurasian Development Bank noted that financing for Tajikistan over the next five years would not meet the country's needs for clean drinking water. From 2025 to 2030, Tajikistan plans to invest $0.4 billion, while needs are estimated at $1.7 billion. Similar problems are observed in other countries in the region.
While Central Asian leaders discuss water supply issues and make pessimistic forecasts, the situation continues to deteriorate. Studies conducted in several countries in the region show the negative impact of water resource shortages on economic development and social spheres. For example, the President of Uzbekistan pointed out that annual losses from water shortages amount to $5 billion, and in the coming years, the deficit could reach 25-30% of needs. Such a scenario could negatively affect not only the development of the countries but also interstate relations in Central Asia.
The chronic water resource deficit in Central Asia remains an unresolved problem, and warnings about potential conflicts between states are increasing. In January of this year, a report from the United Nations University Institute for Water, Environment and Health stated that "the world has entered an era of global water bankruptcy," where critically important water systems are damaged and cannot meet the growing needs of humanity. The Eurasian Development Bank also notes that a severe water shortage in Central Asia could occur as early as 2028.
The research examines the causes of water problems and conflicts in detail, but the main conclusion remains simple – water is becoming scarcer. This has led to the destruction of about 410 million hectares of natural wetlands over the past 50 years. Although Central Asia has not yet reached the "Day Zero" that threatened Cape Town in 2018, the situation is becoming alarming. Without decisive actions to modernize water infrastructure and manage rivers collaboratively, megacities such as Tashkent, Bishkek, Almaty, Astana, and Dushanbe could find themselves on the brink of disaster.
In recent years, many scenarios have been proposed for the development of events in Central Asia amid the growing water resource deficit. All of them converge on the idea that water shortages will lead to population migration both within and beyond borders, and could also provoke interstate conflicts in the region.
