The new leader, Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi, called for a jihad against the USA and Israel.
Against the backdrop of economic problems that began in 2025, the protest movement in the country continues to persist, evolving into political demands.
The airports of the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain have suspended flights, and tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has effectively come to a halt, complicating oil supplies.
Experts from Kaktus.media discussed how the current situation in the Middle East could affect neighboring countries and Kyrgyzstan.
Almaz Tajibay, political scientist
- The conflict affects not only the states neighboring Iran but also impacts the global situation: this is already noticeable in the stock markets. An increase in oil prices is expected due to Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz.There are three possible scenarios for the further development of events.
If the Iranian authorities cannot reach an agreement with the USA to suspend the nuclear program, the consequences will be swift. Another scenario is the development of the situation according to the Venezuelan model, where the supporters of the Ayatollah will remain at about 20%.
The third option is a protracted war similar to the Iraqi conflict, which no one desires.
In any case, the number of refugees and displaced persons will increase, affecting Turkey, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan.
Against this backdrop, Afghanistan will become more active, potentially attempting to attack Tajikistan, which will compel Kyrgyzstan, as a member of the CSTO, to send troops.
The economic consequences for Kyrgyzstan are already manifesting in problems with air travel and pressure on small and medium-sized businesses that depend on supplies from the Middle East.
It is necessary to consider how many citizens of Kyrgyzstan are stranded in the UAE and other countries.
It is also worth remembering the pilgrims from Kyrgyzstan who may find themselves in a difficult situation in Saudi Arabia.
The optimal scenario would be if Iran renounced theocratic governance. However, the Venezuelan scenario cannot be ruled out.
Sheradil Baktygulov, political scientist:
Last year, the trade volume between Kyrgyzstan and Iran amounted to $80 million. Kyrgyzstan exported legumes and nuts while importing paints and construction materials. However, the trade volumes are insignificant for the economy of Kyrgyzstan, whose budget exceeds 1 trillion soms. Significant economic upheavals are not expected. The products supplied by Iran can be replaced by goods from Uzbekistan, Russia, or China.Nevertheless, the Gulf countries that have been attacked also trade with Kyrgyzstan. Remittances from Kyrgyz citizens working in these countries come from there: about 10,000 in the UAE and approximately 1,000 in Kuwait.
The losses from the conflicts will be significant. They need to be carefully assessed. It is expected that supplies from other countries may decrease.Kyrgyzstan receives gas and petroleum products from Russia and Uzbekistan, so there will be no losses in this area. However, supplies of flowers and gadgets from the UAE may be at risk.
Economic problems will be temporary, but there is a likelihood that businesses will start raising prices, citing the conflict, which could lead to speculative price increases and inflation.
From a political standpoint, cooperation between Kyrgyzstan and Iran is quite weak, limited to protocol congratulations and exchanges of opinions.
It is important to remember that during the conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, Iran expressed its support for Tajikistan's security, which remains in the memory of Kyrgyz citizens. It is also worth considering the support from Arab countries towards neighbors - Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
There are also limited connections in the educational and humanitarian spheres: only 30-40 students study Persian in Kyrgyzstan, and in Iran, there are likely no more than a hundred Kyrgyz citizens, mostly women married to Iranians.
Statements regarding the situation in Iran will be closely monitored by the USA, Israel, and Europe. Although Kyrgyzstan is not a major power like Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan, it is important to maintain its image in this situation.
