The results of the analysis conducted by the Singularis analytical club were presented on the platform VB.KG. Club members, representing various professions, concluded that the world is on the brink of a "great reset" of security. In the context of conflicts in the Middle East and Central Asia, vital survival issues for the countries in the region, including Kyrgyzstan, are becoming not just theoretical but require practical solutions. In this regard, it is necessary not only to analyze the situation but also to take measures to prevent catastrophe.
Modern global events resemble a chronicle of collapse. The death of Ali Khamenei on February 28 and the start of Operation "Epic Fury" in March 2026 effectively paralyzed Iran as a reliable supplier of energy resources. The sharp rise in oil prices to the range of $100–150 per barrel negatively impacts countries dependent on imports. Kyrgyzstan, in particular, may face rising prices for fuel and lubricants, as 90% of their supplies come from abroad, creating logistical risks. The conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which erupted in February 2026, has created an unstable zone near Central Asia. Pakistan, possessing nuclear potential and an army of 650,000, is diverting resources to fight the Taliban, jeopardizing regional projects such as CASA-1000. Additionally, Afghanistan, having endured 40 years of guerrilla conflicts, has become a source of mass refugee outflows, which exceeded 115,000 people by March 2026.
The lessons learned from the Indian blackout of 2012 (when 670 million people were left without electricity) and the 2020 pandemic revealed Kyrgyzstan's main vulnerabilities — dependence on food and medical imports. The border closures in 2020 led to shortages of vital goods and a healthcare crisis. Current events in Iran and Afghanistan indicate an increasing risk of an energy, food, and financial crisis in Kyrgyzstan. The country is already facing a constant electricity deficit: winter needs exceed production, and the water level in the Toktogul reservoir often reaches critical levels (below 6-7 billion cubic meters). It is important to ask what will happen if the Central Asian energy system fails due to cyberattacks or sabotage amid a large-scale conflict. Will the potential of hydropower plants be sufficient for the country to operate autonomously in the event of a cessation of electricity supplies from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan?
Kyrgyzstan's economy heavily relies on cashless transactions and remittances from migrants, making the country vulnerable to a banking collapse. In the event of a SWIFT system shutdown or serious server malfunctions due to energy shortages, Visa and Elkart cards will become useless. Does the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan have a "Plan B" in case of internet outages or large-scale attacks on the financial sector? Is the country ready to revert to cash transactions amid the devaluation of the som? It is also crucial to pay attention to the food crisis: Kyrgyzstan imports significant volumes of wheat, sugar, and vegetable oil. Conflicts in Iran and Afghanistan block southern transport corridors, and if the northern borders are closed, food supplies in state reserves could be depleted within 2-3 months.
The events of March 2026 demonstrated that the world has become extremely unpredictable. For Kyrgyzstan, this means the necessity of complete autonomy in the energy sector — without new capacities (such as small hydropower plants and solar power stations), any disruption in the region could lead to a humanitarian disaster. The country needs nuclear power plants that are not dependent on climatic conditions. Additionally, the localization of critically important data and payment systems is extremely important. Ensuring food security should become a top priority, as self-sufficiency in essential products is not only an economic issue but also a matter of national security. Kyrgyzstan is not yet ready for a "full blockade." The COVID-19 pandemic taught the population to live in isolation, but large-scale energy and financial crises require strategic decisions that should be made immediately. It is important to stop perceiving the situation through the lens of the phrase "This cannot happen!"
The film "World War Z" (2013) raises an important concept of the "Tenth Man" (or "Rule of Ten"), which is explained to the main character by Mossad chief Jurgen Warmbrunn. After Israel faced unexpected threats, intelligence agencies implemented this rule to combat "groupthink." The essence of it is that if in a council of ten people, nine come to the same conclusion based on the same data, the tenth must disagree and consider the possibility that the others may be wrong. Jurgen Warmbrunn emphasizes: "If nine of us, receiving the same information, come to the same conclusion, it is the duty of the tenth to disagree. No matter how unlikely it may seem, he must seek evidence that the others are wrong." People tend to not believe in possible threats until they become a reality — that is human nature. It is sad if Kyrgyzstan does not have that very tenth person. In our unstable times, he could play a key role.
