The increasing conflicts in the Middle East, involving Israel, the USA, and Iran, threaten not only nuclear security but also the stability of the global economy. At the beginning of 2026, international financial organizations were making relatively optimistic GDP growth forecasts; however, current events dictate new conditions. Economists, who previously expected a global recession by 2027, are now predicting that the crisis could begin in the coming months.
A key factor contributing to this is the sharp increase in energy prices. The blockage of critically important maritime routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, has already led to a 1.5 times increase in oil prices. Such price spikes in energy were characteristic only of the energy crisis of 1973. The increase in logistics and raw material costs will inevitably lead to inflation rising to double-digit values, forcing central banks to significantly raise interest rates. This move could become the "last straw" for stagnant markets.
The difficulties are exacerbated by chronic problems of capitalism, such as the colossal gap between production capacities and actual demand, as well as enormous debt obligations. In the United States, during Donald Trump's presidency, there has been a troubling rise in national debt, which reached $39 trillion over the past year. At current interest rates, the US economy cannot manage such obligations without significant internal growth. Similar "debt traps" have also affected Europe and China, where the total debt burden exceeds 300% of GDP.
Historically, there are three possible exits from such a crisis: bankruptcy, hyperinflation, or large-scale conflict. It seems that Washington has chosen the military path, seeking to eliminate accumulated imbalances through aggressive actions. However, instead of restoring American influence, such an adventure only accelerates the deepening of the global economic crisis, from which an exit this year appears extremely unlikely.
