According to the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan, the value of the ruble has slightly decreased in recent weeks, which has nearly equalized it with the local currency's exchange rate.
This decline is linked to the consequences of low oil prices in January and February, which manifest with a two-month delay.
Elvira Nabiullina, the chairwoman of the Central Bank of Russia, https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/28183861/thumbnail[/img]" target="_blank">stated on March 20: "The decline in the ruble's exchange rate in March is due to two factors. The first is the low oil prices at the beginning of the year, the effects of which are felt with a two-month delay." Even despite the subsequent rise in oil prices (both Urals and Brent), the impact of their fall is felt precisely in March.
The decline in the exchange rate has been controlled and gradual, without sharp fluctuations. The state is interested in lowering the ruble's exchange rate to increase budget revenues; however, the process remains under control.
Why is the ruble depreciating in Kyrgyzstan?
The current situation is a direct reflection of the state of the Russian market. The National Bank of Kyrgyzstan sets official rates based on market data, while banks and exchange offices follow the quotes from the Moscow interbank market and international prices.There are also additional factors. The volume of remittances from migrants in Russia (rubel inflows to Kyrgyzstan) also affects the exchange rate. When the ruble globally loses value, migrants receive fewer soms for their rubles, which reduces the demand for the ruble in Kyrgyzstan.
Previously, the financial regulator reported a slowdown in food price growth in global markets; however, inflation in the main trading partner countries of Kyrgyzstan remains high. Given the significant share of imports in the consumer basket of the population, domestic prices continue to be sensitive to changes in the external economy.
To control the exchange rate and prices, the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan raised the key interest rate to 12% in February.
In the event of risks to price stability, the National Bank does not rule out the possibility of adjustments in its monetary policy. The next meeting to determine the key interest rate will take place at the end of April.
At the same time, the financial regulator monitors the exchange rate daily.
In Russia itself, there is confidence that the ruble will begin to strengthen soon, which is related to difficulties in oil supplies from the Middle East.
