Jumgalbek Shabdanbekov has been appointed as the acting chairman of the GKNB by presidential decree. Three deputies of the GKNB head have also been dismissed for the same reason.
These abrupt changes make serious adjustments to the political landscape. According to information received from those close to Tashiev, he learned of his dismissal while undergoing treatment in Germany.
According to the president's press secretary, this decision was made to prevent a split in society and to strengthen unity among state structures.
What does Tashiev's departure actually mean, and how will events unfold further? Kaktus.media discussed this with experts.
Bakytbek Jumagulov, political scientist and director of the Eurasian Strategic Studies Center
- Tashiev's dismissal cannot be viewed as a routine personnel change. This is a systemic event, as in recent years, the management of the country relied on a "double support" - a combination of political and power centers.Now this structure has undergone changes. This means that the system is entering a new phase, where all political responsibility will be concentrated in one center.In the short term, this may lead to greater manageability, with fewer internal disagreements. However, in the medium term, risks will increase as the balance disappears, and all criticism will be directed at the top leader.
The second important aspect is the influence on political elites. Such events often trigger processes of redistribution of expectations: some elites will demonstrate loyalty, others will wait, and others will seek new options for interaction.
This will not necessarily lead to an immediate crisis, but there will be "movement" within the elite, which will become evident through personnel decisions and media activity.
The third aspect is public perception. Different groups of the population will interpret events differently: some will see it as a strengthening of power, while others will view it as a sign of instability before elections. Which perception will prevail depends on the authorities' ability to provide clear explanations and offer understandable solutions to socio-economic issues.
Finally, the elections. Against the backdrop of the upcoming presidential campaign, Tashiev's dismissal underscores the importance of one factor: whether the authorities can maintain unity within the apparatus and manage everyday societal issues - such as prices, services, and bureaucracy, which often become catalysts for political processes in Kyrgyzstan.
Thus, it is important now not to succumb to emotions and rumors, but to focus on the question: can the system quickly restore stability and unity among elites before the elections.
Felix Kulov, former Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan
The statement regarding Tashiev was expected, but it will not lead to conflicts, as this is not beneficial for Tashiev himself. He acted wisely by calling for stability and the absence of radical changes.I am confident that there will be no split in the south; the situation there is calm. I have communicated with representatives from different regions, and everything is fine.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Internal Affairs is working with 75 of our public and political figures, and it is now important to understand their motives: whether they sought to destabilize the situation or had other goals. I think the situation will become clearer soon.
It seems to me that these people were simply used. I will not name them, as they are already known. Perhaps they were trying to set Tashiev up to hold early elections.
I have repeatedly emphasized that early elections would require the president to resign. I have always opposed this, citing articles of the Constitution, pointing to the lack of legal grounds for conflicts arising from elections held under the old rules.
The Constitutional Court of the Kyrgyz Republic must resolve this issue.
The Election Law states that the regular elections will take place on the last Sunday of January, when the current president's term ends, and he has the right to run again.
No one has approached me about this, as they know my position.
Stability in the country is more important than any personal interests; intrigues are unacceptable in the current situation.As for Tashiev, he will likely not run, although this cannot be completely ruled out. At the moment, he has no "trump cards" that could help him.
Mavlian Askarbekov, leader of the "Erken El" party
- Tashiev's dismissal was predictable in light of the upcoming elections. This can be seen as a cleansing of the political field.I call for a reassessment of the approach to elections and the creation of equal conditions for all candidates.
I believe we may witness the dismantling of the system that Tashiev built. I expect dismissals at the local level and the departure of some deputies from the Jogorku Kenesh.The presidential elections may take place this year, but it is important to consider the mistakes of the past. Open elections will help smooth the situation.
Almaz Tajibay, political scientist
- The dismissal at such a level indicates a historical development of the state, as political tandems are usually short-lived, and a five-year term is a good period.Tandems are necessary at certain moments to solve urgent tasks, and in this case, it worked.
However, the question arises: did Tashiev know what was happening? If he did not know, it calls into question his professional suitability.
It is possible that his actions against corruption caused dissatisfaction among the ruling elites.
It is also possible that external factors played a role, as his independence could hinder certain interests.
If the ban on "Bayraktars" also caused discontent, this could be another reason.
In the future, we can expect a political thaw, particularly regarding civil rights, freedom of speech, and peaceful assembly. Western donors are currently not very willing to cooperate. It is possible that political prisoners will be released and their sentences overturned.
If this does not happen, the strengthening of the presidential vertical of power is inevitable.
The elections will show in which direction the country is moving.
Arkadiy Dubnov, political scientist
“It has become obvious that the ruling tandem has exhausted itself and can no longer ensure stability,” Dubnov noted in his Facebook post. “It was impossible to expect that it would last forever, and, as one informed person put it, ‘it’s a miracle that the tandem lasted five years at all.’ It is hard not to agree, considering that Tashiev's ambitions made him ‘the number one man’ for many Kyrgyz citizens. He proved himself as a successful negotiator in the border conflict with Tajikistan and even ordered the execution of a well-known criminal authority.How will the now-former second person in the country react to the decision of the first to remove him from office? Will he return from Germany? Will he run in the elections on January 24, 2027? Will he face pressure from the authorities upon his return? There is an opinion that “there are no former KGB agents”...
Emil Juraev, political scientist
- Tashiev's dismissal became an expected event with the approach of the presidential elections. The question of "when?" hung in the air alongside discussions about the presidential term and powers. This became a red line. The tandem existed unofficially, based on friendship and agreements, and fulfilled its role.Tashiev always remained subordinate to Sadyr Japarov, despite their friendly relations. However, discussions about his possible participation in the presidential elections intensified in society.
Now it is necessary to take a pause, as Kamchybek Tashiev himself did, who expressed hidden dissatisfaction with the situation in his comments, especially considering that all this happened during his official treatment in Germany.
