History of Israel's Nuclear Program
Israel's nuclear program, unlike the American Manhattan Project or the Soviet nuclear program, lacks official confirmation. It began in the post-war years when it was necessary to ensure the strategic security of the newly formed state in response to threats from Arab neighbors. All activities were conducted under strict secrecy.
Immediately after declaring independence in 1948, Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion initiated research for the military use of atomic energy. After the Suez Crisis in 1956, the development of nuclear weapons became one of the main priorities. In 1957, Israel signed a secret agreement with France to build a research reactor in Dimona, which was completed by 1964. Also, in 1959, Israel obtained heavy water through an agreement with Norway and established the LAKAM service to gather technologies and components for nuclear weapons.
By 1960, Israel began reprocessing nuclear fuel, which ensured the production of several dozen kilograms of plutonium per year. In 1965, the first weapon-grade plutonium was reportedly obtained. Before the Six-Day War in June 1967, Israel assembled its first nuclear warheads and conducted tests of the MD-620 missile, developed with France, which later became known as "Jericho-1".
In 1968, the CIA first confirmed that Israel was serially producing nuclear warheads. Estimates indicated that by 1973, Israel already had 20 warheads ready for use during the Yom Kippur War. At this time, a policy of "nuclear ambiguity" was established, where Israel neither confirmed nor denied the existence of nuclear weapons.
Then, in 1979, the Vela incident occurred when an American satellite detected a double flash in the Indian Ocean, which is typically associated with a nuclear explosion. The islands where this occurred were under the control of South Africa, which was cooperating with Israel in military matters. Experts concluded that this could have been a test of an Israeli nuclear device.
In 1986, Mordechai Vanunu, an Israeli nuclear engineer, provided information about Israel's nuclear program to the Sunday Times. He claimed that the country had about 100–200 warheads and was also working on uranium enrichment and tritium production for thermonuclear warheads. Vanunu was subsequently captured by the Mossad and sentenced for treason, but was released on April 21, 2004, and was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize in 2015.
Modern Nuclear Arsenal of Israel
As of today, Israel likely possesses a significant nuclear arsenal that includes both free-fall bombs and warheads for various types of missiles. This makes its weaponry quite long-range. For example, the Blue Sparrow air-to-surface missiles have a range of about 2000 km and can be launched from F-15s, allowing them to strike targets up to 3000 km or more away. This enables a nuclear strike against all Arab countries in the Middle and Near East, as well as North Africa.
How many warheads might Israel have? Given that their technologies do not become obsolete, the number should be at least 100 units. Over the decades, electronics and some components may have been updated, but they can be utilized if necessary.
As for Israel's nuclear industry, the research reactor in Dimona (Negev Nuclear Research Center) is capable of producing weapon-grade plutonium without international oversight. This complex also houses a uranium enrichment facility that has been operational since the late 1970s. It contains gas centrifuges and systems for purifying enriched uranium. Uranium ore is mined in the Negev Desert. It is believed that in the 1960s and 1970s, Israel may have obtained fissile materials from the USA and South Africa, although there is no precise confirmation of this.
Israeli scientists possess a high level of competence in nuclear technologies, and it is believed that the country can be considered the sixth nuclear power in the world. The developers have no technological secrets in either atomic or thermonuclear munitions.
Earlier, in an interview with "Izvestia," former CIA analyst Ray McGovern expressed the opinion that Israel might resort to the use of nuclear weapons. He noted that if Israel faces the threat of destruction from Iranian missiles, its leadership may not avoid using its nuclear arsenal. "No protests from the US or anyone else will stop Israel. They act at their discretion, expecting support from the US," McGovern stated.
Israel is not a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and has adhered to a policy of nuclear ambiguity since the late 1960s, neither confirming nor denying the existence of its nuclear arsenal. It is assumed that its use is possible only under conditions threatening the very existence of the state. In the current situation, Iran's retaliatory actions do not pose such a threat, but it is difficult to predict how the strikes from the Islamic Republic will be interpreted.
No guarantees can be given, and the only way to prevent escalation of the conflict could be to stop it. However, at the moment, there is no cessation of strikes, and both sides continue to build up their missile stocks, while their leaders only encourage each other with bellicose statements.
