Arthur Suleimanov, head of the ethnic policy and conflict studies sector at the Geopolitical Research Center "Berlek-Unity," noted in an exclusive interview with "VES24" that the US-Israeli conflict with Iran has entered a new stage.
The new developments in the confrontation between the US and Iran have exacerbated the global energy crisis, affecting the interests of countries outside the region as well.
Changes in the Conflict
In recent events, the area of combat operations has expanded, and the struggle for key energy hubs has intensified.
Now, strikes are not limited to military infrastructure; Israel and the US are also attacking energy and logistics centers, including the South Pars gas field and Iran's largest port, Bandar Anzali, on the Caspian Sea.
Iran, for its part, has learned to respond effectively to threats from the US and Israel, targeting strategically important facilities. This has led to strikes on the LNG center in Ras Laffan, Qatar, and oil and gas companies in Saudi Arabia and the UAE that cooperate with American corporations.
On March 18, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that Iran did not intend to attack the energy facilities of neighboring countries, and the measures taken were a response to threats to its security.
Additionally, Turkey's energy facilities are involved in the conflict. On March 4, a missile was intercepted over Gaziantep, on March 8, one was shot down in Turkish airspace, and on March 13, sirens sounded at the Incirlik base. However, it is unclear who is behind these attacks.
The US does not hide its intentions to control the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 90% of Iranian oil exports pass. In this regard, President Trump threatens to deploy additional troops to the Middle East.
Meanwhile, Iran continues to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz and is developing a new legal regime that will be in effect after the conflict ends, planning cooperation with Oman.
Washington's Plans
Trump likely did not expect a protracted war with Iran. The continuation of military actions will require significant financial expenditures for the US, which could affect his political career. In his election campaigns, he emphasized the need to reduce military spending and opposed troop involvement in conflicts. However, the US is now actively using expensive bombs against Iran and discussing the possibility of a ground operation.
Nevertheless, Iran demonstrates confidence and readiness to resist, no matter how many resources it requires.
The most likely scenario is Trump declaring the US victory over Iran, followed by a shift of attention to Cuba. Although such a statement is unlikely to be convincingly received by the international community, Trump has limited options for exiting the current situation.
From the perspective of energy policy, the US will, as usual, try to benefit from the impending global energy crisis.
