Since the beginning of 2026, the world has found itself on the brink of a global war, and the question of whether it can be avoided is becoming increasingly urgent. How might this affect Kyrgyzstan if everything goes according to the worst-case scenario? Dmitry Belov, a logistics specialist, shared his opinion with VB.KG, emphasizing that the main confrontation will unfold in the Middle East. He believes it is important to analyze the logistical consequences of military actions in the Strait of Hormuz for Kyrgyzstan and Central Asia.
According to Belov, Iran currently represents a crucial transit point for delivering European goods to Kyrgyzstan via the port of Bandar Abbas. Simultaneously, all trade with Turkey passes through Iran. Although these cargo flows may not constitute a critical share of imports and exports for the Kyrgyz Republic, their disruption could cause significant breakdowns in the already established system of road freight transportation.
In the context of current instability, the importance of Caspian routes (Turkmenbashi port – Alat port – Turkmenbashi port) is growing. However, Belov notes that the solution is complicated by limited port capacities and the condition of the Caspian cargo fleet. The age of the vessels directly affects the quality and cost of maritime transportation.
The expert predicts that significant changes will occur in the rules for road freight transportation between Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, as well as Kazakhstan and Russia. Strengthening security measures will become crucial, including monitoring the contents of cargo and compliance with sanctions, as well as military escort for convoys to prevent capture or destruction.
Dmitry Belov warns skeptics: "In the first month and a half of 2026, more than a dozen vessels were detained in the world's oceans, cargo was confiscated, and crews were arrested without sufficient grounds. Let’s also recall the cases of small vessels being destroyed in the Caribbean under the pretext of a threat to U.S. national security from drug cartels. The destruction of trucks carrying drugs no longer seems like a fantasy."
In modern combat operations, unmanned systems are increasingly being used, and these threats must be taken into account when organizing transportation along the Silk Road in 2026. Belov highlights two key tools for ensuring security: electronic navigation seals for accurate tracking and militarized escort groups (convoys) involving special forces.
As an example, he cites the situation in the Red Sea, where the actions of the Houthis have led to insurance premiums for carriers rising to 1% of the value of the vessel and cargo, prompting a significant redirection of flows around Africa.
According to the expert, "the time has come for operational and responsible decisions, especially regarding the security of freight transportation along Silk Road routes." All changes in the country are also linked to events in the Middle East, and judging by the latest news, active actions are expected in early March, concluded Dmitry Belov in an interview with VB.KG.
