Since the beginning of 2026, the world has found itself on the brink of a global conflict. What are the consequences of this tense situation for Kyrgyzstan if the situation worsens? Logistics expert Andrey Belov noted in an interview with VB.KG that the main military actions are likely to unfold in the Middle East. He emphasizes that it is crucial to analyze the logistical consequences of possible operations in the Strait of Hormuz, both for Kyrgyzstan and for all of Central Asia.
According to the specialist, the territory of Iran plays a decisive role in the transit of European goods to Kyrgyzstan through the port of Bandar Abbas. Furthermore, all cargo flows from Turkey also depend on Iranian territory. Although the share of these goods in the overall volume of Kyrgyzstan's imports and exports may seem insignificant, any problems with cargo transportation through Iran could disrupt the established order of road transport, adds Dmitry Belov.
In this situation, routes through the Caspian Sea (Turkmenbashi port – Alyat port – Turkmenbashi port) become particularly important. However, the expert notes that the solution depends on the capabilities of the ports and the condition of the Caspian cargo fleet. The age of the vessels directly affects the cost and quality of maritime transport.
According to Andrey Belov's forecasts, a radical restructuring of the rules for road transport in the directions of Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan-Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan-Kazakhstan-Russia is expected. Increased security measures are becoming necessary: from cargo control and compliance with sanctions to organizing militarized escort of convoys to prevent their capture or destruction.
He also points out that those who believe that Kyrgyzstan is not at risk should consider that in the first one and a half months of 2026, more than 15 vessels were detained in the world's oceans, cargoes were confiscated, and crews were held without sufficient grounds from the perspective of international law. An example is the destruction of small vessels in the Caribbean Sea due to threats to U.S. national security related to drug cartels. The destruction of trucks under the pretext of transporting drugs is no longer an unrealistic scenario, warns the expert.
Modern combat operations are increasingly conducted using drone technologies, which should also be taken into account when organizing transportation along the Silk Road in 2026. Dmitry Belov highlights two key security assurance tools: electronic navigation seals for accurate tracking and militarized escort groups (convoys) from the GBR.
As an example, he cites the situation in the Red Sea, where the actions of the Houthis have led to an increase in insurance premiums for carriers to 1% of the value of the vessel and cargo, forcing many to change routes and go around Africa.
“Now is the time for quick and responsible decisions, especially regarding the security of cargo transportation along the Silk Road routes. All the changes occurring in the country are also a consequence of events in the Middle East. According to the latest news, an active action period will begin in early March,” concluded Belov in an interview with VB.KG.
