Uzhydromet has published the climate forecast for November.
According to the data, the average air temperature this month is expected to be 6-7 degrees lower, and in the northern and desert regions - 8-9 degrees lower than in October.
The maximum temperature recorded in the history of meteorological observations is +30…+33 degrees, while in Karakalpakstan, Khorezm, and the Fergana Valley it is +26…+28 degrees.
The historical minimum temperatures were recorded in the last century, when in the coldest Novembers the temperatures dropped to -19…-24 degrees, and in the north - to -28…-31 degrees, in the southern regions - to -10…-15 degrees.
In recent years, such sharp frosts in November have not been observed. In this century, the lowest temperature across most of Uzbekistan was -10…-15 degrees, recorded in November 2020, which became the coldest in recent years, as well as in 2016. On the warmest days, the temperature did not exceed 0…+3 degrees.
However, in Karakalpakstan, very low temperatures close to records have also been observed this century. In 2006, 2016, and 2020, temperatures dropped to -18…-21 degrees, and in Ustyurt - to -26…-28 degrees.
November 2023 has become the warmest in the history of observations, with temperatures exceeding the climatic norm by 3-6 degrees.
In most of Uzbekistan, except for the northern and desert regions, the temperature in November 2023 did not drop below zero.
November is characterized by the least susceptibility to temperature increases compared to other months. Over the past 25 years, there has been a negative trend in the average increase in temperature.
Precipitation (rain, sometimes turning into snow) in November will be more frequent and intense than in October.
In the mountainous areas, the first snow cover will begin to form, which will be unstable in the lower zones, and at altitudes above 2000-2200 m by the end of the month, its height may reach 25-40 cm.
The rainiest November in the history of observations was November 2011, when precipitation amounted to up to 3-3.5 monthly norms, and in the south - up to 4-7 monthly norms.
For example, in Tashkent in November 2011, 167 mm of precipitation fell with a norm of 51 mm, and the number of days with precipitation was 19 with a norm of 11.
Precipitation occurred both as rain and snow, and by the end of the month, the snow cover reached 20 cm, although it lasted only two days.
In Termez, the same month recorded 148 mm of precipitation with a norm of 20 mm.
However, in the history of meteorological observations, there have also been anomalously dry Novembers, when precipitation amounted to only 1-30% of the norm.
What will November be like this year?
From November 1 to 2, dry weather is expected throughout Uzbekistan, with daytime air temperatures of +15…+20 degrees.
From November 3, cold and relatively humid air will begin to flow into the northern regions, and from November 4 - into the entire country.
From November 3 to 5, there will be occasional rains, and in the foothills and mountainous areas, snow is possible.
From November 4 to 7, the temperature will gradually decrease, reaching 0…+3 degrees at night, with possible frosts, and during the day - up to +8…+13 degrees.
By the end of November, temperature fluctuations at night are expected to range from -2…+3 degrees to +5…+10 degrees, and during the day - from +8…+13 to +18…+23 degrees.
The average temperature in November is expected to be 1-1.5 degrees below normal, with some areas around normal.
Precipitation, mainly in the form of rain, is possible on certain days in the second and third decades of November.
