The Kyrgyz Republic and China are at a new stage of strategic rapprochement aimed at deepening trade and economic relations. A significant impetus for this was the state visit of President Sadyr Japarov to China in February 2025, during which more than 20 bilateral agreements were signed. The main focus of cooperation has been improving logistics routes and removing barriers to trade. It is expected that in August 2026, during the SCO summit in Bishkek, the visit of the Chairman of China, Xi Jinping, will take place, marking an important step in the development of bilateral relations.
Interestingly, by the end of 2025, the trade turnover between the two countries reached a record high of $27.2 billion, which is 20% more than the previous year. This made Kyrgyzstan a leader in trade growth with China in Central Asia. In this regard, the ambition to reach $45 billion by 2030 seems a logical continuation of current trends.
We reached out to the director of the "Regional Mining Center of Central Asia" and former advisor to the Minister of Economy of Kyrgyzstan, Dairo Ismail Aydarghazievich, to ask how feasible this goal is and what conditions are necessary for its implementation.
"Achieving a trade turnover of $45 billion between Kyrgyzstan and China is quite realistic. I also consulted with an expert in this field, and he confirmed this opinion. However, two key aspects should be considered," noted Dairo.
"First, the domestic market of Kyrgyzstan is not capable of absorbing such volumes of goods on its own. In my opinion, the country will only be able to handle about 10% of the mentioned amount," he added.
"Second, our re-export potential plays an important role. The geographical position of Kyrgyzstan allows it to be used as a transit route for the supply of Chinese goods to other countries in the region. Considering this function, achieving the stated volume seems quite possible."
Moreover, the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway could be an additional factor. If it is put into operation in 2028-2029, the trade turnover could not only reach but also exceed the planned $45 billion.
It is also important to understand how the accounting of commodity flows is carried out. According to data obtained in the 2010s, Chinese customs recorded goods supplied to Kyrgyzstan worth about $11 billion, while Kyrgyzstan's official reporting showed just over $1 billion. The difference is explained by the fact that part of the goods was not accounted for officially.
Today, thanks to digital technologies and transparent control systems, such discrepancies are gradually decreasing. Therefore, provided that trade transparency is maintained and logistics are developed, achieving the stated indicators seems quite realistic," concluded Dairo.
