The key factor behind this rise was the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, where threats to oil infrastructure increased and risks to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz emerged, which is a vital artery for about 20% of global oil trade. Additional complexities in the market were caused by supply disruptions and concerns about shortages.
Although Kyrgyzstan does not receive fuel from this region, the rise in global prices still has an indirect impact on its domestic market. The republic is largely dependent on oil product supplies from Russia, which meets 90-95% of its needs.
Economist Kuban Choroев emphasized that the increase in oil prices on the international stage leads to higher wholesale prices, including in Russia, which in turn affects the purchase prices of fuel for Kyrgyz companies.
According to him, the influence of global prices on the domestic market is felt with a time lag of several weeks to a month. For 2026, indicative volumes of oil product supplies from Russia have already been agreed upon at 1.5 million tons, which include 650,000 tons of gasoline and 550,000 tons of diesel fuel.
It is also noted that fuel price increases are observed in major Asian economies such as China and India, which are increasing imports of Russian oil. This leads to intensified competition for resources and creates additional pressure on prices.
At present, the domestic market of Kyrgyzstan remains stable. Fuel supplies are being delivered without delays, and there is no shortage. However, with the onset of the agricultural season, increased consumption is expected, especially of diesel fuel.
Considering numerous factors such as high global prices, growing demand, and dependence on imports, there is a likelihood of further increases in fuel prices in the domestic market in the near future.
