What fate awaits modern culture?
We have talked about the tragic fate of just one sunken city in the waters of the lake. Researchers know of more than a dozen such cities beneath the waves of Issyk-Kul, which perished as a result of disasters. What nature did these disasters have? Academician L. S. Berg had no doubt: “The underwater ruins at Issyk-Kul,” he wrote, “are due to the subsidence of part of the shore as a result of earthquakes.”
Tectonic disasters at Issyk-Kul, located in a highly seismic zone of young mountains, are not uncommon.
Land subsidence in certain areas was recorded during the strong earthquakes of 1887, 1899, and 1910.
These were strong destructive disasters, but the subsidence was local, affecting relatively small sections of the coastline, whereas the ancient underwater cities are located beneath the waves of the entire coastal area of the lake, indicating a simultaneous grand disaster.
Prominent physical geographer A. V. Shnitnikov, who studied Lake Issyk-Kul for many years, concluded that the lake's level is related to general long-term climatic changes in the northern hemisphere of the planet.
The scientist established several phases of maximum rise (transgression) and maximum fall (regression) of the lake's water level. According to Shnitnikov, the period between the most powerful transgressions is approximately 1850 years.
One of the catastrophic transgressions occurred at the turn of the old and new eras. It swallowed the glorious city of Chigu.
Another occurred at the turn of the 18th and 19th centuries. At that time, the lake's level was 13.5 meters higher than today, and part of its waters were discharged into the Chu River through the Kute-Maldy channel.
Based on the study of numerous sources, cartographic, and archaeological materials, Kyrgyz scientists S. Umurzakov and D. Vinnik, while partially accepting A. V. Shnitnikov's opinion, identified four phases of high and four phases of low water levels of Lake Issyk-Kul. Our discovery of Chigu allows us to add a fifth, currently the most ancient (until further discoveries) phase of low water level.
The summary of the scientists' observations can be presented in the form of a table:
Since the mid-19th century and up to the present day, the sixth regressive phase of the fall of the level of Lake Issyk-Kul has been ongoing.
Determining how long it will last and to what extent Lake Issyk-Kul will shrink is the task of future research.
Catastrophic transgressions of the lake have already twice destroyed agriculture and monuments of agricultural culture in the Pre-Issyk-Kul region over the past three thousand years. When will the third catastrophic transgression begin, and what fate awaits modern culture?
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