According to forecasts, new winters in Europe may be full of snow and frost, but scientists see nothing positive in this. The reason for such changes is the weakening of the AMOC, which affects the climate stability of the region.
Dr. Rene van Westen, a climate physicist from the Netherlands, uses modern models to show that the AMOC is losing its strength. This is happening due to the melting of Greenland's glaciers and increased precipitation, which leads to the accumulation of freshwater in the North Atlantic. Freshwater, unlike saltwater, does not sink to depth, making it difficult for the thermal "pump" to operate.
If this process continues, Europe may face its consequences in the coming decades.
“We can see both a weak positive anomaly and cooling. This will depend on the rate of weakening of the current and changes in the global climate,” notes van Westen.
He emphasizes that the slowdown of the AMOC will not prevent global warming; summer heat and drought will remain, and contrasts between seasons will become more pronounced.
“We expect winters to be frosty, with temperatures 10 degrees below normal, while spring and autumn will be cold. In some parts of Norway, cooling may reach 20 degrees. At the same time, the Southern Hemisphere will become warmer, as the exchange of cold between regions weakens, which may lead to droughts and desertification in some areas and heavy rains and floods in others,” explains the researcher.
The worst-case scenario is a complete collapse of the AMOC, but this cannot be ruled out either. If the current stops, the climate of Europe will change irreversibly, approaching that of Canada, and the predictability of weather on the planet will decrease.
“It is still unclear when this may happen,” says van Westen. “However, the more the Earth warms, the more unstable the ocean becomes.”
Thus, the winter that Europeans are accustomed to may return in the form of harsh conditions, and they will begin to long for warm, rainy days.
