Turkmenistan: Consequences of Drought
On November 21, the Russian publication "Meteorological Journal" published satellite images of the Dostluk reservoir, which has significantly shrunk due to a lack of precipitation. This reservoir, created in collaboration with Iran and located on the border with Afghanistan, has been experiencing a water deficit for seven months, as the Tejen River, on which it depends, has dried up. There has been no significant rainfall in the region since March.
The surface area of the Dostluk water body has decreased by 50%, and considering its location in a narrow mountain valley, this figure may be even higher compared to normal levels. The reservoir supplies water to the Serakhs etrap, and Iran is even more dependent on it.
Not only Dostluk and Tejen are suffering from a lack of precipitation. The surface area of the Saryazyn reservoir, the largest on the Murghab River, has decreased by more than three times, and the water volume has reached levels seen in 2021, when the peak of the drought of 2020-2023 occurred, one of the most severe in the last 70 years.
The Mammetköl and Delili reservoirs have completely dried up, as has the Etrek River itself. Even the runoff from the Amu Darya, the main water artery of Turkmenistan, has decreased to below normal levels. Experts predict that this situation will persist, and may worsen, as no precipitation is expected in the coming weeks. November may become the driest month on record in some areas of the country.
Desiccation of the Amu Darya
According to the "Meteorological Journal," drought was recorded at 24 out of 27 observation points in Turkmenistan from April to October, with extreme drought observed at six of these points. In three locations where precipitation was within normal limits, it was distributed extremely unevenly.
Information and statistics about the climate should come not from foreign publications, but from the hydrometeorological service of Turkmenistan. However, its reports mainly focus on conferences and memorandums, failing to reflect the real situation regarding droughts and climate changes.
Meanwhile, neighboring Iran is preparing for a possible mass evacuation due to a similar crisis.
Iran: Possible Climate Refugees
On November 20, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian raised the issue of relocating the capital from Tehran due to the water crisis. The capital region is home to about 15 million people, and despite the absence of specific evacuation plans, the president emphasized that this is becoming a necessity.
The question of a new location for the capital remains open, as the entire territory of Iran is affected by drought. This autumn has been declared the driest in the last 50 years, and 19 reservoirs are on the verge of drying up, filled to less than 10%.
Iranian authorities are also considering methods such as cloud seeding to increase precipitation; however, this measure is not a long-term or widespread solution. In Tehran, as in Ashgabat, water outages are being implemented, but this does not solve the problem, as up to 90% of water resources are consumed by agriculture.
Since the 1979 revolution, Iran has sought food independence, leading to inefficient use of water resources. The construction of hydroelectric power stations has also contributed to the worsening water supply situation. Expert Kaveh Madani notes that a lack of management and strategic planning has played a key role in turning Iran into a "water bankrupt."
Pezeshkian has already raised the issue of relocating the capital, suggesting it be moved to the Persian Gulf. Replenishing water supplies through desalination could be one of the solutions for the country.
The situation in Iran may be of interest to Turkmenistan as an example. Both countries face serious climate challenges, and this problem requires a systematic approach to resolution. If measures are not taken, Ashgabat may face the necessity of evacuation in a few years, as is happening in Iran.
