According to preliminary forecasts, geomagnetic disturbances are expected to last for at least a day. The peak activity is anticipated on Friday, November 7, when the main masses of ejected solar plasma reach Earth, which may lead to even stronger magnetic phenomena.
RBC reports that on November 5, a powerful solar flare of class M7.4 was recorded, expected to reach Earth on Friday, November 7. The time of the flare was around 17:00. That same night, another plasma ejection occurred, moving towards Earth at a speed of about 1,000 km/s. This cloud turned out to be larger and faster than the previous one and is likely to encounter it in space, partially absorbing it along the way.
According to calculations, the first contact with Earth's magnetosphere is expected on November 7 at around 15:00. Models predict that the storm level may rise to G3–G4, which corresponds to strong and very strong geomagnetic disturbances. Experts note that the probability of an extreme G5 level storm is currently low, but it cannot be completely ruled out.
“The final forecast for geomagnetic storms will be recalculated several times, and the final information will only be available by Friday night. If the storm level remains at G4, it can be considered a success. However, based on the current dynamics, soulless models could even record a G5 level,” experts share their forecasts.
In the last 24 hours, three powerful flares occurred on the Sun, including two X-class flares—the first since June of this year. Specialists note that such events are extremely rare. In the first 25 years of the 21st century, just over 240 X-class solar flares were recorded, averaging less than one per month. The last time several powerful events occurred in succession was on January 3 and 4, 2025, when three flares happened within a day at intervals of 10–12 hours. Now, however, the gap between two X-class flares is only 4.5 hours.
“From this perspective, this event can be considered unique at least for the past year, and possibly for a longer period,” the specialists concluded.
