Currently, these climate phenomena manifest irregularly, with varying levels of strength and frequency. However, over the next 30-40 years, they may transition into a stable rhythm characterized by more pronounced fluctuations in ocean temperature. Professor Malte Stuecker from the University of Hawaii noted that “the tropical zone of the Pacific Ocean may experience a kind of tipping point, shifting from stable to unstable oscillatory behavior.”
This transformation will be driven by an intensification of interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere against the backdrop of global warming.
Computer modeling has shown that as El Niño intensifies, it will begin to “synchronize” with other major climate systems, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and the mode of tropical North Atlantic activity. This can be compared to pendulums that start to move in unison.
This synchronized behavior will lead to more pronounced fluctuations in precipitation in regions such as Southern California and the Iberian Peninsula, increasing the risk of hydroclimatic “whiplash” effects.
A more predictable El Niño will simplify the creation of seasonal climate forecasts; however, its intensification will create serious problems: instances of extreme precipitation will become more frequent, and droughts will be followed by floods. This will negatively impact agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems across different continents.
The study was conducted using advanced high-resolution climate models and validated by observational data. Scientists urge countries to begin preparing now for increased climate variability.
