Events in Afghanistan May Threaten the Security of Kyrgyzstan
– According to the latest data, Kunduz has been liberated from the Taliban; however, all nearby provinces remain under Taliban control. Groups of Pashtuns and representatives of the "Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan" have also been spotted there, the expert notes. – But the liberation of Kunduz should not be perceived as a stabilization of the situation in Afghanistan. There is a high probability that the IMU and other radicals will advance northward. Kunduz is only 2-3 hours away from Tajikistan, but there is no need to worry about this border area, as the 201st Russian military base is located there, which reliably protects this direction.
According to Sariyev, it is crucial to prevent the infiltration of IMU forces into Tajikistan, where the situation is currently very complicated: the Islamic Revival Party of Tajikistan has gone underground, and part of the political elite is in a state of uncertainty.
– The border area near Gorno-Badakhshan poses a particular danger. In this section of the border, there are neither a Russian military base nor CSTO forces. Local border guards are unable to resist professional sabotage groups that have been trained in Afghanistan, Syria, and other hot spots. It will be especially difficult to combat small groups of 5-7 people, who will operate autonomously and advance towards the border areas of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, the political scientist reported.
For Kyrgyzstan, there is a threat in the Batken direction. The situation is further complicated by the fact that parliamentary elections will soon be held in the Kyrgyz Republic, and all government agencies are focused on their conduct.
– Agree that there are many coincidences: Russia is currently occupied with events in Syria and Ukraine, the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh is very tense. There is an intra-elite struggle in Tajikistan. In Kyrgyzstan, there are parliamentary elections. Parties that lose the elections may destabilize the situation in the republic and also make contact with anti-Rakhmon forces in Tajikistan, notes Mars Sariyev.
It is worth recalling that on September 28, the Taliban conducted a large-scale operation to capture the hundred-thousand-strong Afghan city of Kunduz, the Khanabad district of the same province, as well as the Ishkashim district of the Takhar province. The city of Kunduz closes off the valley of the river of the same name, which serves as a natural corridor through which militants can easily reach the border of Tajikistan.
