Population Forecast of Kyrgyzstan for the Years (2020-2100)

Population of Kyrgyzstan in 2019

In 2019, the population of Kyrgyzstan will increase by 104,931 people and will amount to 6,399,518 people by the end of the year. The natural population growth will be positive, totaling 130,109 people. Approximately 170,583 children will be born and 40,474 people will die throughout the year. If the level of external migration remains at last year's level, the population will change by -25,178 people due to migration reasons. This means that the total number of people leaving the country (emigrants) will exceed the number of people entering the country for long-term residence (immigrants).

Dynamics of population change in Kyrgyzstan in 2019

Below are the coefficients of population change in Kyrgyzstan calculated for 2019:

Birth rate: an average of 467 children per day (19.47 per hour)
Death rate: an average of 111 people per day (4.62 per hour)
Migration growth: an average of -69 people per day (-2.87 per hour)
The population growth rate in Kyrgyzstan in 2019 will be 287 people per day.

Population of Kyrgyzstan 2018

According to our estimate, at the end of 2018, the population of Kyrgyzstan was 6,294,587 people. Over 2018, the population of Kyrgyzstan increased by approximately 103,210 people. Considering that the population of Kyrgyzstan at the beginning of the year was estimated at 6,191,377 people, the annual growth rate was 1.67%.

Here are the main demographic indicators for Kyrgyzstan in 2018:

Born: 167,786 people
Died: 39,811 people
Natural population growth: 127,976 people
Migration growth: -24,766 people
Men: 3,099,365 people (as of December 31, 2018)
Women: 3,195,222 people (as of December 31, 2018)

Population density of Kyrgyzstan

According to data from the United Nations Statistics Department, the total area of Kyrgyzstan is 199,950 square kilometers.

The total area includes the land area and the area of all water surfaces of the state within international borders. Population density is calculated as the ratio of the total population residing in a given territory to the total area of that territory. According to our calculations, at the beginning of 2019, the population of Kyrgyzstan was approximately 6,294,587 people.

Population distribution by age groups

According to our calculations, as of the beginning of 2019, the population of Kyrgyzstan had the following age distribution:

Thus, the population density of Kyrgyzstan is 31.5 people per square kilometer.

In absolute numbers:

1,842,803 people under 15 years old (men: 939,593 / women: 903,210)
4,118,737 people aged 15 to 64 (men: 2,017,163 / women: 2,101,637)
333,047 people over 64 years old (men: 128,661 / women: 204,385)
We have prepared a simplified model of the age-gender pyramid, which includes only three age groups, the data for which has been provided above:

As we can see, the age pyramid of Kyrgyzstan has a progressive or growing type. Such a type of pyramid is typically found in developing countries. The demographics of such countries are characterized by a relatively short life expectancy due to high mortality and birth rates. High mortality and birth rates are caused, among other reasons, by low levels of healthcare and education.

Demographic load coefficient

The demographic load coefficient indicates the burden on society and the economy from the population not belonging to the working-age population (dependent part of the population). The population not belonging to the working-age population includes the total population under 15 years old and the population over 64 years old. The working-age population (productive part of the population) is, accordingly, between 15 and 65 years old.

The demographic load coefficient directly reflects financial expenditures on social policy in the state. For example, with an increase in this coefficient, expenditures on building educational institutions, social protection, healthcare, pension payments, etc., must be increased.

Total load coefficient

The total demographic load coefficient is calculated as the ratio of the dependent part of the population to the working or productive part of the population.

For Kyrgyzstan, the total demographic load coefficient is 52.8%.

This ratio means that Kyrgyzstan experiences a relatively high social burden on society. This means that every working person in Kyrgyzstan must provide more than 1.5 times the amount of goods and services than would be necessary for themselves.

Potential replacement coefficient

The potential replacement coefficient (child load coefficient) is calculated as the ratio of the population below working age to the working-age population.

The potential replacement coefficient for Kyrgyzstan is 44.7%.

Pension load coefficient

The pension load coefficient is calculated as the ratio of the population above working age to the working-age population.

The pension load coefficient in Kyrgyzstan is 8.1%.

Source: The data in this section is based on the latest publications from the UN Statistics Department in the field of demographic and social statistics external link.

Life expectancy

Life expectancy is one of the most important demographic indicators. It shows the average number of years of a person's future life. That is, the number of years a person can theoretically live, assuming that current birth and death rates remain unchanged throughout their life. Generally, "life expectancy" refers to life expectancy at birth, that is, at age 0.

The average life expectancy at birth (for both sexes) in Kyrgyzstan is 70 years.

This is below the average global life expectancy, which is around 71 years (according to the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division).

The average life expectancy for men at birth is 66 years.
The average life expectancy for women at birth is 74.2 years.

Literacy of the population

According to our estimates, about 4,430,488 people over 15 years old in Kyrgyzstan can read and write in any language. This constitutes 99.52% of the total adult population. The adult population in this case refers to all people over 15 years old. Accordingly, about 21,358 people remain illiterate.

The literacy rate among the male adult population is 99.64% (2,138,163 people).
7,661 people are illiterate.

The literacy rate among the female adult population is 99.41% (2,292,324 people).
13,698 people are illiterate.

The literacy rate among youth is 99.69% and 99.81% for men and women, respectively. The overall literacy rate among youth is 99.75%. The concept of youth in this case covers the population aged 15 to 24 years inclusive.

Source: The data for the section "Literacy of the Population of Kyrgyzstan" is based on the latest data published by the UNESCO Institute of Statistics (data was taken on March 13, 2016).



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