The energy market in China is undergoing changes
One of the most noticeable geo-economic phenomena in Central Asia during the first ten months of 2025 has been a significant change in the export routes of coal from Kyrgyzstan.
During this period, the export of coal from Kyrgyzstan reached a record 916 thousand tons, equivalent to 42.4 million dollars. This represents an increase of 15% in physical volume and 18.4% in monetary terms compared to the same period in 2024. The main recipient of Kyrgyz coal in 2025 was Uzbekistan, which received 887.5 thousand tons, or 97% of the total coal export volume from Kyrgyzstan.
At the same time, coal supplies to China, which has traditionally been one of the main destinations for Kyrgyz exports, sharply decreased to symbolic volumes — only 28.2 thousand tons. This indicates a catastrophic decline of 65% in physical volume and 70.8% in monetary terms. As a result, China's share in coal exports from Kyrgyzstan fell to 3%, whereas previously it was comparable to Uzbekistan's share.
This sharp reduction in supplies to China may be linked to regulatory measures introduced by the Kyrgyz government.
It is worth noting that back in November 2024, a decision was made to ban the export of coal (both hard and brown) by road outside the customs territory of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This step was motivated by the need to ensure the country's energy security and stabilize domestic fuel prices. Exceptions to this ban applied to the road checkpoints "Irkeshtam" and "Torugart" on the border with China, which left a formal possibility for coal exports in this direction.
Changes in the export of Kyrgyz coal to China may also be associated with radical changes in the Chinese energy market, where there is an active transition to more environmentally friendly types of fuel, and the level of domestic coal production remains high, reducing the need for imports. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, annual coal production in the country exceeds 4.5 billion tons, ensuring a high level of self-sufficiency.
Interestingly, the introduction of export restrictions by the Kyrgyz authorities led to a paradoxical but significant increase in coal supplies to Uzbekistan in both absolute and relative terms. Prices also increased — from 44.2 dollars per ton in 2024 to 46.5 dollars in 2025, further boosting the revenues of Kyrgyz exporters.
For Uzbekistan, coal exports from Kyrgyzstan have become critically important, despite the fact that domestic coal production in the country increased by 24% in the first ten months of 2025, reaching 6 million tons. The Uzbek industry relies on certain grades of coal, and direct agreements between state enterprises ensure stability in supplies.
However, complete dependence on a single geographical direction for coal supplies carries certain risks. Among them is the lack of market diversification, which makes the country vulnerable to changes in demand and economic policy. Even though the focus on exports to Uzbekistan and the rise in raw material prices have helped partially stabilize Kyrgyzstan's trade balance.
The lack of diversification makes Kyrgyzstan extremely vulnerable to changes in the economic strategies of other countries. Furthermore, having only one major coal buyer can weaken Kyrgyzstan's position in negotiations over pricing and supply volumes, as well as slow down the modernization of the coal industry due to a lack of competition.
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