The increase in the rate is explained by an analysis of both external and internal factors affecting inflation, as well as forecasts of monetary policy.
This decision is expected to contribute to the formation of price dynamics in the medium term within the target range of 5-7 percent.The National Bank does not rule out the possibility of adjusting its monetary policy in the future.
Inflation
Since the beginning of 2025, the inflation rate in Kyrgyzstan has reached 6.2%, and on an annual basis, it stands at 8.4%. The structure of the consumer price index shows a shift in inflationary pressure from food products to non-food items, primarily due to changes in the external environment.Investments and Economic Growth
The economy of Kyrgyzstan is demonstrating high growth rates due to increased consumer and investment activity. Over the nine months of 2025, real GDP increased by 10%. Major capital investments have also risen, largely due to the expansion of domestic funding sources, which, in turn, has contributed to the development of the construction sector.The growth of household incomes, supported by an active fiscal policy and an increase in remittances to the country, remains a key factor in domestic demand.
Overall, monetary conditions are conducive to maintaining macroeconomic stability. The currency market in the country shows stability, and interest rates in the money market ensure a balance between the attractiveness of savings and access to loans. The banking sector remains resilient to external challenges and has a high level of liquidity in the national currency, creating opportunities for expanded lending.
Forecasts
The National Bank notes that the current external environment is characterized by high uncertainty, driven by geopolitical risks, changes in global trade, and the fragmentation of the global economy, leading to fluctuations in world prices for energy resources and food products, which affect domestic prices.At the same time, the impact of increased consumer demand and the planned revision of tariff policy on the inflation rate is assessed as moderate.
The financial regulator emphasizes: "External circumstances create instability for inflation in Kyrgyzstan in the near future and require a cautious approach to monetary policy."
