The bank's strategists noted that the recent changes in forecasts were a result of market correction, where Bitcoin fell approximately 36% from its historical high in October, reaching a level of $80,600 by the end of November. Despite this, the decline corresponds to "normal" fluctuations observed in the past.
Kendrick, the bank's lead analyst, stated that the changes in forecasts were driven by new demand dynamics. He pointed out that the two main factors contributing to Bitcoin's rise after the approval of spot ETFs in the U.S. were inflows into ETFs and purchases by public companies. However, he believes the second factor has exhausted itself.
According to updated forecasts, Bitcoin's price is expected to reach $100,000 by the end of 2025, $150,000 in 2026, and $225,000 in 2027. It was previously assumed that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of this year. Analysts also ruled out the possibility of a bearish trend that had previously been observed every four years.
In July, Standard Chartered predicted $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing capital inflows into spot cryptocurrency ETFs and corporate demand. However, the bank now believes that a break below the $100,000 level could be more sustainable than previously thought.
At present, analysts believe the market shows significant dependence on the distribution of funds through ETFs. Even with the lowered forecasts, the report maintains a "bullish" outlook in the long term, based on portfolio optimization. The bank's models indicate that Bitcoin is still undervalued in global investment portfolios.
What Will Happen to Bitcoin's Rate Next
Kendrick notes that the current dynamics of Bitcoin have led to a revision of the bank's forecasts. However, the decline from the historical high still falls within "normal" parameters.
Here is a quote from the expert cited by The Block.
Our previous short-term targets are incorrect. But the bank still adheres to its view on the long-term future of the market.
The long-term model suggests that Bitcoin will ultimately reach $500,000, although the bank does not rule out the possibility of further adjustments to its forecasts.
It is expected that the rate of growth will depend on inflows into ETFs, which remain the only structural source of demand.
Kendrick also emphasizes that there is no reason to believe that the current correction is a precursor to a new "crypto winter," despite previous halving cycles.
The bank's analysis shows that previous major purchases coincided with sharp price increases, but the current situation is different, and the level of purchases has significantly decreased.
Thus, experts believe that the factors supporting Bitcoin's growth have changed, and it is now important to monitor the flows of funds through ETFs.
Nevertheless, analysts remain optimistic in the long term, expecting that real investments in cryptocurrency will gradually increase as access to ETFs expands and digital assets are included in investment strategies.
Thus, Standard Chartered has lowered its Bitcoin forecast to $100,000 by the end of 2025 while maintaining a long-term optimistic outlook.
Attention! We have more channels on social media, read and watch:
- Telegram
- Youtube
