According to The New York Times, this incident has become the deadliest for civilians since the beginning of U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, yet neither side has claimed responsibility for what happened.
A study based on satellite images and verified information from social media indicates that the school was severely damaged as a result of a targeted strike that coincided with an attack on a nearby IRGC naval base.
Reports indicated that U.S. forces were conducting operations against maritime targets in the Strait of Hormuz, where the IRGC base is located, which may suggest possible U.S. involvement in this strike.
White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt, responding to a request from The New York Times, stated that "to their knowledge — no" information exists that the U.S. carried out an airstrike on the school, adding that the Department of Defense is conducting an investigation.
The exact circumstances of the incident remain unclear due to the absence of discovered weapon fragments and limited access for foreign journalists to the site. According to Iranian authorities and media, at least 175 people, many of whom were children, died as a result of the strike on the Shajarah Tayyebeh school.
U.S. authorities did not confirm or deny their involvement in the incident for several days. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth reported that an investigation is underway. An Israeli army spokesperson, Nadav Shoshani, added that he is unaware of any Israeli operations in the area at the time of the strike.
According to public statements from the U.S., their aviation was operating in the region where the school is located on the day of the attack.
Minab, a small town in southern Iran, is more than 600 miles from Tehran and near the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Saturday in Iran marks the beginning of the workweek, and at the time of the strike, children were in class.
Initial reports of the attack began to appear on social media around 11:30 local time. Analysis of data and videos taken by witnesses within an hour after the attack confirms that the school was struck simultaneously with the naval base. One video shows large plumes of smoke rising from the area of the school and the base.
Shortly after the attack, photographs of the destruction of the school appeared in Iranian human rights organizations. Videos published by Iranian media and verified by The New York Times show people trying to find survivors and the dead in the rubble.
A video was also recorded by a driver passing by the entrance to the IRGC base, where emblems and signs of the naval medical command are visible.
The New York Times clarifies that thick plumes of smoke rose over the military buildings hit.
For a deeper understanding of the damage to the base and possible reasons for the strike, The New York Times commissioned new satellite images from Planet Labs. An image taken on Wednesday confirmed the sequence of events.
Satellite images show that several targeted strikes hit at least six IRGC buildings and the school building. Four buildings on the base were completely destroyed, and two others showed impact points characteristic of precision strikes.
Wes J. Bryant, a national security expert and former Pentagon advisor, analyzed the new satellite images and believes that all buildings, including the school, were hit by "almost perfect targeted strikes."
Bryant, who previously criticized the Trump administration, expressed the opinion that the most likely cause of what happened was "misidentification of the target," when the military attacks an object without knowing that a large number of civilians are present.
General Dan Keen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, stated at a press conference that U.S. forces attacked southern regions of Iran. On a map he presented, it was shown that the area, including Minab, was among the targets of attacks in the first 100 hours of the operation, although the city itself was not mentioned.
He also noted that Israeli forces operated mainly to the north and provided examples of U.S. operations against targets in southern Iran, without mentioning the presence of Israeli military.
The general stated: "In the southern direction, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group continues to exert pressure along the southeastern coast and attacks Iran's naval capabilities throughout the strait."
Satellite images from 2013 show that the school building was previously part of the IRGC naval base, and roads from the base led to this building. However, by September 2016, the area had been separated, and the school was no longer associated with the base.
Historical satellite images also show that the building had signs of an educational institution: a sports yard and other recreational areas developed over time.
Bet Van Shaak, a former U.S. State Department official now teaching at Stanford University, stated that "given the U.S. intelligence capabilities, they should have been aware that a school was nearby."
The internet has seen hypotheses suggesting that the cause of the strike could have been an Iranian missile that went off course. However, The New York Times and other analysts dismissed this version, pointing out that a single missile could not cause such precise damage to multiple buildings.
U.S. authorities continue the investigation. If it is established that the strike on the Shajarah Tayyebeh school was carried out by U.S. forces, a key question will be whether it was a mistake or if the strike was based on outdated intelligence.
Janina Dill, an expert in international humanitarian law from Oxford, noted that the parties to the conflict are obligated to "verify the status of the target" before an attack to minimize the risk to civilians. Failure to comply with this requirement may be considered a violation of international law.
