Analysts at Trafigura, a company engaged in international commodity trading, expect a significant surplus of supply in the global oil market by 2026. This is reported by Bloomberg.
According to forecasts from the International Energy Agency, a record surplus level may be reached next year—over four million barrels per day, which accounts for about four percent of total global consumption. Although final figures are likely to be lower than initial estimates, experts still predict a serious imbalance in favor of excess supply.
"The situation with the surplus, whether ordinary or significantly exceeding expectations, can no longer be prevented," noted Trafigura's chief economist, Saad Rahim.
Analysis shows that this surplus is forming as a result of the launch of large production projects that were planned many years ago, amid declining global demand. However, stable purchases from major importers such as China, as well as changes in the export strategies of the U.S. and OPEC+ countries, may partially delay or mitigate the effects of the supply surplus in the market.
