Sukembaev emphasized that the period from 2020 to 2023 was marked by high activity in the real estate market. For example, the number of registered transactions increased from 51,590 in 2020 to 70,700 in 2023. However, growth in 2024 was only 9%, indicating a decline.
The agency conducted a study of the economic cycle in the real estate market over the past two decades. The results showed that there is an alternation of price increases and decreases in housing every six to seven years. This year marks the end of another cycle that began in 2019 and will last until 2025. Previous cycles covered the years 2000-2007, 2007-2014, and 2014-2019.
The real estate market generally reacts slowly. Unlike prices for food and securities, which can change frequently, housing prices require more time to adjust. Sellers initially focus on market offers, but after six months, they may be forced to lower prices for a successful sale.
At the same time, construction companies and investors begin to actively invest in projects, despite the fact that the earnings of the population do not grow proportionally. This leads to a decline in demand, first in the form of a slowdown, and then a decrease in prices, which is characterized as a depression.
Currently, the market is in an expansion phase, and according to forecasts, prices may reach a peak by the end of the cycle. However, further growth is not expected, and developers may be left with unfinished projects, which could lead to a slight decrease in prices. Previous cycles showed declines of 40% and 7-10%, while this time a slight decrease of 5-10% is anticipated.
Since the beginning of 2023, prices for apartments and private houses in Bishkek and Osh have increased by 20-30%.
