According to CNN, Donald Trump creates the impression that he is ready to step away from the situation surrounding the war in Iran.
The U.S. President criticizes his allies who did not support his actions in Iran, claiming that they were not properly notified and believed it contradicted international norms, telling them they would have to deal with the consequences.
“Forget about us and handle oil extraction on your own,” he wrote in his post on Truth Social before it became known that the administration could not guarantee the restoration of free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz until its mission was completed.
Later, Trump stated that the conflict would be “resolved” within the next two to three weeks. “Whatever happens in the strait, we have nothing to do with it,” he said in a conversation with reporters in the Oval Office.
Iran, controlling the chokepoint at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, threatens to cut off vital oil supplies and leave the global economy in a vulnerable position. If Iran gains control over this key waterway, it would be a significant strategic achievement.
In light of new signs that Trump is eager to end the war, officials appear to be preparing rhetoric to justify his decision to halt the conflict without addressing the consequences. Defense Secretary Pete Hegset said on Tuesday that the U.S. has already achieved “regime change” in Iran — despite the fact that the country is still run by Islamist radicals who hate America.
Recent attempts by the administration to rethink the criteria for success highlight the difficult choices facing Trump more than a month after the conflict began, as well as the growing pressure from the established timeline of four to six weeks for its conclusion. These events occur against the backdrop of the President's statements about “productive” negotiations with Iran, although Iranian officials deny this, and there is a lack of any public evidence of progress in the diplomatic sphere.
In light of new signs that Trump is eager to end the war, officials appear to be preparing rhetoric to justify his decision to halt the conflict without addressing the consequences. Defense Secretary Pete Hegset stated that the U.S. has already achieved “regime change” in Iran — despite the fact that the country is still run by Islamist radicals who hate America.
Recent attempts by the administration to rethink the criteria for success highlight the difficult choices facing Trump more than a month after the conflict began, as well as the growing pressure from the established timeline of four to six weeks for its conclusion. These events occur against the backdrop of the President's statements about “productive” negotiations with Iran, although Iranian officials deny this, and there is a lack of any public evidence of progress in the diplomatic sphere.
While a withdrawal may cause chaos, it aligns with Trump's style, which has proven more successful in dismantling existing orders than in creating new ones. It also supports the principle of “America First,” according to which the U.S. should act solely in its own interests, reflecting his dissatisfaction with NATO allies whom he considers dependent on American security.
However, the U.S. cannot ignore the consequences of Trump's actions. The economic and political ramifications of Iran maintaining control over the strait could be severe. Trump may be able to create rhetoric to justify his exit, but convincing the markets will be much more challenging.
“Although the U.S. is the world's leading oil producer, this does not shield American consumers from fluctuations in oil prices, as these prices are determined by the global market,” noted Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East studies program at the Defense Priorities think tank, in an interview with CNN International. “Thus, this supply shock affects everyone in the United States and around the world.”
This economic blow could trigger a global recession that would also impact the U.S. — possibly just months before the midterm elections, when Democrats are hoping for a significant victory to limit Trump in a second term.
In a broader context, the consequences of the war with Iran could lead to an even greater rift in the transatlantic alliance. This underscores the need for European allies, as well as those whom Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney calls “middle powers,” to invest more in their own armed forces, recognizing that American security has become less reliable since World War II.
Warning signals have sounded across Europe, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, one of the most pro-NATO members of Trump's team, stated on Al Jazeera that the allies' response to the war has been “very disappointing” and hinted that Trump may “reassess” U.S. commitments to them after the conflict ends.
What Europe could lose.
In the unpredictability of the Trump era, allied leaders realize that they can no longer rely on U.S. security guarantees, as the American president seems to be starting to tie them to support for his actions.
Some countries, such as the United Kingdom, initially denied the U.S. permission to use their airbases for military operations in Iran. Others, like Spain, went even further. As a result, Trump criticized relations with London and threatened to terminate all trade deals with Madrid.
In the unpredictability of the Trump era, allied leaders realize that they can no longer rely on U.S. security guarantees, as the American president seems to be starting to tie them to support for his actions.
Some countries, such as the United Kingdom, initially denied the U.S. permission to use their airbases for military operations in Iran. Others, like Spain, went even further. As a result, Trump criticized relations with London and threatened to terminate all trade deals with Madrid.
As always, Trump's words should not be taken too seriously. Signs that the U.S. may end its war became evident the day after his threats to destroy Iranian power plants and desalination facilities if Tehran does not meet his demands for peace.
Trump's public statements sometimes serve as a tactic designed to pressure weaker opponents. Rubio hinted at this, stating on Friday that “countries in Asia and around the world have a lot at stake and must contribute significantly” to efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
While there may not be a clear path for Iran and the U.S. to exit the conflict, U.S. allies may have the opportunity to stand up to Trump. Europe has the potential to help. Some countries may offer demining capabilities that the U.S. lacks. France has expressed willingness to participate in an international mission with other naval forces to protect shipping in the strait — but only after combat operations are concluded.
“I think they are still working to prevent an irreparable rift in transatlantic relations due to these disagreements with the United States over Iran,” said Stephen Flanagan, former senior director for defense policy and strategy at the National Security Council, at a briefing at the Middle East Institute. “But with each passing day, it becomes increasingly difficult due to Trump's sharp criticism of the Europeans' response to what is happening.”
“This is not our war; we did not start it.”
Nevertheless, such a position does not absolve allies from the consequences of the war — a reality that seems likely to define Trump's second term.
Hundreds of millions of people from Asia to Europe, from Africa to the Middle East did not vote for him and have no influence over his actions.
Yet, his decisions have a significant impact on their lives.
The article "Trump may end his war, but the rest of the world may pay for it" was first published on K-News.
