According to information provided by RIA Novosti, in the coming decades, Tokyo and its surroundings could experience a powerful earthquake that may lead to the death of up to 18,000 people and economic losses amounting to 83 trillion yen (approximately 535 billion dollars).
These figures are based on a scenario involving an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.3. Experts note that the probability of such an event occurring in the metropolitan area is about 70% over the next 30 years.
According to calculations by the Japanese government, in the worst-case scenario, the consequences could be catastrophic: up to 18,000 people could die, around 400,000 buildings could be destroyed, and 4.8 million people may be unable to return to their homes. The number of associated deaths could range from 16,000 to 41,000.
Japanese media report that the new forecast is less grim compared to the 2013 assessment, when the number of potential victims was estimated at 23,000, and economic losses at 95 trillion yen (about 613 billion dollars).
However, the risks to key infrastructure facilities have increased. In the event of an earthquake, power outages could affect about 16 million power supply points, significantly exceeding the previous estimate of 12 million.
Additionally, up to two million people may face issues with sewage usage, whereas this figure was previously 1.5 million. This is due to the new assessment taking into account factors that were not considered earlier, such as the likelihood of wastewater treatment facilities shutting down during large-scale power outages, as well as the increase in Tokyo's population and the associated burden on vital infrastructure networks.
