According to the "Moscow Komsomolets," a sharp increase in prices in the wholesale market usually quickly reflects on retail prices, which may herald a repetition of the autumn fuel crisis of 2025.
The cancellation of the moratorium on gasoline exports for producers has become a necessity. The export ban was introduced at the end of August last year when long queues of drivers trying to refuel formed at Russian gas stations. The gasoline shortage forced authorities in some regions to limit its supply at gas stations.
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak claims that the current situation with supply and demand has stabilized, and there is even a surplus of fuel. Officials previously closed exports to meet domestic needs, but extending the export ban now could lead to market oversaturation and a reduction in processing volumes, adds the deputy head of the government.
There is currently no panic at Russian gas stations. With inflation at 2.11%, gas station tariffs, according to Rosstat data, have increased by only 1.42% since the beginning of the year. This is not due to the greed of sellers, but rather to the increase in the value-added tax from 20% to 22%.
However, if we look at the wholesale segment of the market, it becomes clear that it is too early to relax. From the beginning of January to the beginning of February, the prices for AI-92 at the St. Petersburg Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange rose by 7.3%, which is comparable to the price increase for this gasoline for the entire year of 2025 (+10%).
