At the beginning of February this year, wholesale fuel prices saw a decrease of more than 1.5%. This positive change was perceived by the market as a result of the extension of the partial ban on the export of oil products, which, according to analysts, allows for the retention of additional fuel volumes within the country and minimizes the risks of shortages during periods of high demand. Previously, fuel shortages had led to sharp price increases.
Forecasts for gasoline price dynamics in 2026 are contradictory. Arthur Leer, Vice President of the Association of Exporters and Importers, claims that sharp price jumps should not be expected. He believes that the rise in gasoline prices will occur gradually and will not exceed the inflation rate, which authorities predict to be around 4%.
On the other hand, more cautious forecasts are expressed by Alexey Ivanov, owner of the "Alliance Trax" dealership network, who suggests that price growth could be around 8% per year. He points out that the market has already reacted to the increase in VAT and excise taxes, which led to a 1.3% rise in fuel prices at the beginning of the year. Additional risks, Ivanov notes, may be associated with potential disruptions in the operation of oil refineries during the spring-summer period and fluctuations in the exchange rate. If the refineries operate stably and export restrictions remain in place until mid-year, sharp price jumps can be avoided. However, by the end of 2026, it is expected that the price of AI-92 gasoline will reach 66–68 rubles per liter, while AI-95 will be 71–73 rubles.
Igor Yushkov, an expert from the Financial University and the National Energy Security Fund, also believes that keeping price growth within the limits of inflation will be difficult. He emphasizes that much will depend on the geopolitical situation: a weakening of sanctions pressure could reduce the costs for oil companies and contribute to the stabilization of prices in the domestic market.
