Today, the fuel and lubricants market (GSM) is experiencing price stability; however, car owners in Kazakhstan are concerned about forecasts of potential increases. In a comment for the publication SteppeNews, financier and expert from the Qazaq Expert Club, Zhania Sandybai, analyzes the current situation: how the cost of GSM is currently maintained and how justified the expectations of a sharp price jump are.
According to her, a temporary moratorium on price increases for AI-92 gasoline and diesel will come into effect from October 2025 and will last until spring 2026. The average price for AI-92 remains at 239 tenge per liter, while diesel fuel costs 335 tenge per liter. Interestingly, premium grades of gasoline have increased in price: on January 19, 2026, AI-95 rose from 298 to 315 tenge, and AI-98 – from 325 to 365 tenge per liter. Thus, the margin on AI-95 helps cover losses on AI-92.
It is important to note that the moratorium is an anti-inflationary measure, not a market one. At the end of this period, the market will face the necessity to "catch up" with prices, which may lead to a sharp increase rather than a smooth one.
The current low prices also hinder the modernization of operating oil refineries (OR) and cast doubt on the possibility of constructing a new, fourth refinery, which has been discussed for several years. Even with the full load of the three largest refineries (PNHZ, PKOP, and ANPZ), the country sometimes faces a shortage of gasoline and diesel during peak seasons, such as planting and harvesting. Without attracting private capital and adequate processing tariffs, Kazakhstan risks finding itself in a situation of "shortage despite having its own oil." Furthermore, to increase the depth of processing and improve fuel quality to European standards, a rise in prices is also necessary; otherwise, it will lead to increased import dependence on certain components.
Moreover, in 2027, within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the creation of a common market for energy resources is planned, which will require Kazakhstan to align its prices with those of Russia and other neighboring countries. Therefore, the government faces the task not so much of keeping prices at any level but of skillfully managing the transition to a market model, avoiding a repetition of the fuel crises faced in the past.
According to the expert's forecasts, in 2026, prices for GSM will increase. In particular, she suggests that the cost of AI-92 may rise to 270-330 tenge per liter, AI-95 to 340-400 tenge, and AI-98 to 380-450 tenge.
Zhania Sandybai recommends that businesses take into account the rise in GSM prices in their financial models, anticipating an increase of 15-20% above the official inflation level. Thus, if inflation is around 10%, the expected increase should be factored in at 25-30%.
