Are these changes the beginning of a new era for the ruling party, or are they just empty promises of reform?
The internal walls of the "Buyan-Uhaa" Sports Palace in Ulaanbaatar, previously chilled by the November cold, were filled with the noise of 2200 delegates of the Mongolian People's Party (MPP), the ruling party in Mongolia.
The MPP congress, held on November 15 under the slogan "Unity-Solutions-Development," was not just a formal vote for new leadership but an attempt to restore public trust after a series of corruption scandals and political confrontations.
Uchral Nyam-Osor, the 38-year-old first deputy prime minister of Mongolia, became the key figure of this event, receiving 94.95% of the votes and becoming the new chairman of the MPP. The question is whether he will be able to revive the party or if his election will merely be an attempt to maintain the status quo.
The MPP elections have huge implications for Mongolia, a country with a population of 3.5 million people, located between China and Russia. The party has been in power since 2016; however, its legitimacy has been undermined by corruption scandals, such as the "Coal Stocks" case, which cost the country billions of dollars. As a result, the former speaker of parliament was forced to resign, and the former prime minister also stepped down amid protests. By the time of the congress, the MPP's rating had fallen below 30%, while the opposition Democratic Party (DP) began to gain popularity.
Uchral, who has a positive reputation in the fields of digital technology and economic diplomacy, became the "candidate for renewal" from the MPP, capable of overcoming internal disagreements and convincing voters of the party's genuine intentions. However, despite the support of the delegates, questions remain: is his election a real breakthrough or just another attempt at cosmetic changes?
The Dangerous Calculations of the MPP: Why Uchral, Why Now?
To understand Uchral's selection, it is important to consider the existential crisis of the MPP in 2025. The party's troubles began early in the year when videos surfaced showing Oyun-Erdene's daughter flaunting luxury items against the backdrop of the population's economic hardships. This sparked mass protests, resulting in Oyun-Erdene losing trust, which led to the collapse of the MPP's coalition with the DP.
His successor, Zandanshatar Gombojav, also faced difficulties, becoming embroiled in a conflict with the former speaker of parliament over corruption allegations. This led to the latter's resignation and created additional tension within the party.
By the time of the congress, the MPP was in a state of complete disarray. The old guard, tainted by scandals, could not meet the demands of younger members for reform, and Uchral became a compromise choice.
Uchral, who has served as a deputy since 2016, has experience in digital technology and economic diplomacy. His education and international experience have allowed him to establish connections at the Eurasian crossroads, which could be beneficial for Mongolia.
As the Minister of Digital Development, he promoted innovative projects, such as the "Chinggis Sat" satellite, which is expected to provide Internet access in remote areas and improve e-governance.
In the economic sphere, he acted as a mediator in concluding a trade agreement with the EAEU, which is expected to increase trade volumes by $3 billion, as well as in a uranium mining deal with Orano Mining, promising hundreds of jobs.
However, his ties to certain business structures raise doubts. The failure of the initiative for the "Law on the Protection of Human Rights in Social Networks" demonstrated his vulnerability to party pressure, casting doubt on his reformist intentions.
The MPP's choice to support Uchral also signifies a generational shift: at 38, he became the youngest party chairman in decades.
His plan presented at the congress, "E-4 Strategy," aimed at optimizing the party's operations, sparked interest among young delegates and includes elements of anti-corruption policy and youth empowerment.
What Awaits Uchral Next? Power, Constraints, and Questions About the Presidency
With Uchral's victory, the question arises: will he seek higher positions, such as speaker or prime minister? At the moment, the MPP has chosen a "dual leadership" model, where Zandanshatar remains prime minister, and Uchral heads the party, which should balance different factions within the MPP.
However, the prime minister's position is not ruled out in the future. In the event of Zandanshatar's mistakes, Uchral could easily take his place.
A key point will be the implementation of Mongolia's development plan, which sets ambitious goals for economic growth and competitiveness. Success in these areas will be an important factor for government stability.
As for the presidential elections, according to the constitution, candidates must be at least 50 years old. Therefore, Uchral, who will likely have to secure victory in the 2027 elections, will need to wait for the right moment when the party is strong enough to support his candidacy.
Uchral may face resistance from the "council of elders" within the MPP, whose support will depend on how well he can implement reforms without threatening their interests.
His "E-4" strategy also includes restrictions for high-ranking officials, which may cause discontent among the old guard.
"The elders have given Uchral the opportunity to act, but with caveats," comments one analyst, pointing to the need to maintain a balance between reforms and traditions.
Why the Heavyweights Sat Out: Factional Deals and Retreat Tactics
Uchral's convincing victory raises the question of where the other influential figures of the MPP are. The answer lies in the factional politics and deals that preceded the congress.
Key figures such as Byambatsogt Sandag, Enkhbayar Jadamba, Temuulen Ganzorig, and Amarsaihan Sainbuyan chose not to participate in the elections. Lkhagvajav Batbold, Uchral's only opponent, had no support from any faction.
According to rumors, the elders of the MPP eliminated stronger opponents to ensure Uchral's victory. "This was not just an electoral race; it was a coronation," experts claim.
Byambatsogt, holding a strong position as an ally of Zandanshatar, chose to support Uchral to maintain his influence rather than risk an election. Enkhbayar, lacking a clear support base, also decided not to participate.
Young candidates like Temuulen understand that participating in the elections could lead to marginalization, given Uchral's support from key factions.
Amarsaihan, still recovering from a scandal, also lacks the strength to challenge Uchral and prefers to wait.
Nymbaatar Khishgee, the mayor of Ulaanbaatar, also avoids confrontation, aware of Uchral's support among the elders.
Thus, the old guard of the MPP organized support for Uchral to demonstrate party unity and protect their interests, allowing him to take the initiative in implementing reforms.
Upcoming Risks: Reform or Facade?
Uchral's chairmanship begins with promises, but serious challenges await him. "Unity" within the MPP remains fragile: the stability and development factions agree only on the necessity of winning elections. Uchral's reforms may face resistance from the elders seeking to maintain their positions.
The economic situation in Mongolia is also unstable, making the country vulnerable to changes in global markets. Diversification projects, such as the uranium initiative, will require time for implementation.
Corruption continues to threaten foreign investment, and the high cost of projects may cause discontent. Uchral avoids revising conditions to avoid worsening the investment climate.
In the near future, Uchral will need to implement the budget for 2026, which includes measures aimed at increasing salaries but at the expense of cuts in other areas, which may provoke public discontent.
Geopolitical factors also add risks, as the balance between China, Russia, and the West becomes increasingly complex. Uchral will need to navigate the interests of these countries to ensure Mongolia's security.
However, the greatest threat is that Uchral's reforms may turn out to be mere words. The MPP has repeatedly promised to combat corruption, but in practice, this has only targeted lower officials.
If Uchral does not hold high-ranking individuals accountable, public trust may be undermined. "Mongolians have become cynical about promises of reform," experts warn.
As the "Buyan-Uhaa" Sports Palace emptied on November 16, Uchral found himself at the center of Mongolia's political future. His chairmanship can be seen as a risky move for the MPP, aimed at restoring the party's image, which has been damaged by scandals. This is a chance for Mongolia to overcome its dependence on resources and corruption.
Uchral's success will depend on his ability to overcome the old guard of the MPP and implement real changes. If he manages to carry out reforms and hold the elite accountable, he could change the political landscape of Mongolia. Otherwise, the MPP may continue its decline, leading to political instability.
author: Sumyaa Chuluunbaatar — economist and international affairs expert. Currently, Sumyaa works as a freelance researcher at the Institute of International Studies of the Mongolian Academy of Sciences.
translation: Tatar S.Maidar
source: The Diplomat
