The main factor driving up prices is the fear of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-third of the world's maritime oil supplies and a significant portion of liquefied gas pass. According to Western sources, many tankers have halted their routes in anticipation of developments in the situation. Insurance companies have also begun to revise their insurance terms for vessels passing through the Persian Gulf.
According to ICIS expert Ajay Parmar, it is the threat of blocking the strait, rather than the attacks themselves, that leads to the formation of what is called a military premium in prices. He notes that in the event of prolonged shipping restrictions, quotes could quickly approach $100 and exceed that level.
The OPEC+ alliance has announced plans to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day starting in April, exceeding the previously planned 137,000. However, analysts believe that this volume may not be sufficient to cover a potential deficit in the event of serious supply disruptions from this region.
Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, expressed the opinion that if the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed, the price could rise to $120-150 per barrel. Even with alternative routes, including land pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the market could lose up to 8-10 million barrels per day.
