As reported by the UN News Service, last year the resilience of the global economy to a sharp increase in tariffs in the U.S. came as a surprise. This resilience was supported by stable consumer spending and easing inflation, which contributed to maintaining growth rates.
However, economic threats remain: low investment and limited budgetary capacity create obstacles to economic activity.
The report emphasizes that the partial reduction of trade tensions has helped minimize disruptions in international trade. However, in 2026, the impact of high tariffs and increased macroeconomic uncertainty is expected to become more pronounced. Particularly high risks persist in sectors related to the rapid development of artificial intelligence.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres noted: “Existing economic, geopolitical, and technological contradictions are reshaping the global landscape and recreating economic uncertainty. Many developing countries continue to face serious difficulties, making the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals unattainable for a significant part of the world.”
Growth: steady but uneven
In the U.S., economic growth is expected to be at 2 percent in 2026, slightly better than 1.9 percent in 2025, supported by easing fiscal and monetary policy.
The economy of the European Union is projected to grow by 1.3 percent in 2026, down from 1.5 percent the previous year, due to high tariffs from the U.S. and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, which is restraining exports.
In Japan, GDP growth is expected to be 0.9 percent in 2026 compared to 1.2 percent in 2025.
In the post-Soviet space, growth is expected to be at 2.1 percent in 2026, almost unchanged from the previous year, despite ongoing military actions in Ukraine negatively affecting macroeconomic conditions.
In East Asia, the economy is projected to grow by 4.4 percent in 2026, down from 4.9 percent in 2025. In particular, China's GDP is expected to be at 4.6 percent, which is also lower than the previous year. In South Asia, growth is forecasted at 5.6 percent, while India may achieve a result of 6.6 percent due to stable consumption and significant government investments.
In Africa, economic growth is expected to be 4 percent in 2026, slightly above 3.9 percent in 2025. However, high debt levels and climate shocks pose significant risks.
Although global trade showed steady growth of 3.8 percent in 2025, exceeding expectations, experts predict a slowdown: in 2026, trade growth rates are expected to be around 2.2 percent.
Investment levels remain low in most regions due to geopolitical tensions and tight fiscal conditions. Nevertheless, monetary easing and targeted fiscal measures support investment in some countries, while rapid progress in artificial intelligence creates growth points in major markets.
Experts warn that the potential benefits of AI implementation may be distributed unevenly, deepening existing structural inequalities.
The report also highlights that high prices remain a key global issue, despite easing inflation.
Overall inflation decreased from 4 percent in 2024 to 3.4 percent in 2025 and is expected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2026. However, high prices continue to exert pressure on real incomes.
