New estimates predict that in 2025, the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) will reach 9%. In the following years, a decline in these indicators is expected: 6.4% in 2026, 6% in 2027, and 5.5% in 2028. As a result, the average growth forecast for Kyrgyzstan's economy has been raised by 0.8 percentage points.
The main factor influencing the revision of the forecast was the high growth rates in the construction industry, driven by both increased investments in industry and the development of housing construction under the state program "My House".
Experts also warn that this year inflation will exceed the planned range and will reach 8.1% by the end of 2025. The main reasons for this are the rising prices of food products, electricity, and some services.
Nevertheless, inflation is expected to stabilize next year at around 6.4%, which will allow a return to the limits set by the National Bank of Kyrgyzstan, the EFSD notes.
As for the budgetary sector, a surplus of 1.6% of GDP is expected to be maintained in 2025-2027. This will create an opportunity for financing the recapitalization of state companies in sectors such as energy, banking, and construction.
Starting in 2028, a slight budget deficit of about 0.2% of GDP is forecasted, which is associated with the expected decline in tax revenues.
