Sergey Vakulenko, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Berlin Center, in his analysis for the Carnegie Politika project and the publication "Meduza," argues that Venezuelan oil will not become a reliable tool for Washington for several reasons.
First, there is a myth about "easy oil." As Vakulenko points out, Venezuela will not be able to instantly increase production volumes. Years of underfunding and the impact of sanctions have led to a deterioration of infrastructure. Restoring production to the levels of the 1990s will require significant time and investments amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars, making it impossible to quickly impact the market.
Second, high production costs. The majority of reserves located in the Orinoco belt consist of extra-heavy oil, which requires substantial expenses for extraction and refining. The expert emphasizes that keeping global prices below $50 per barrel with such oil is extremely difficult.
The third reason is dependence on old commitments. A significant portion of current production is already contracted to repay debts to China and Russia, which limits the volumes that the U.S. could quickly direct to its refineries, even in the case of complete control over the industry.
The fourth reason is the technological barrier. The market demands quick solutions; however, the Venezuelan situation implies long-term investments. The increase in supply in the short term will only amount to hundreds of thousands of barrels per day, which is insufficient to change OPEC+ policy.
In conclusion, Sergey Vakulenko states that although Venezuelan reserves remain a strategically important resource for many years, they cannot serve as an effective mechanism for lowering high gasoline prices in the U.S.
