It will be extremely difficult for the representatives of the "Old Kazakhstan" to carry out a coup and return to power. They will have to either secure the support of the majority of politically active citizens or attract the backing of a powerful foreign state. In the current conditions, this seems unlikely, as noted by kz.expert.
Recently, rumors about the health of Karim Massimov, the former Prime Minister and Chairman of the National Security Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan, who was sentenced in April 2023 to 18 years in prison for treason, violent seizure of power, and abuse of office, have resurfaced.
It is said that he was transferred to a prison in Ust-Kamenogorsk not due to new investigations, but because of the closure of the colony where he was held. He is likely placed in the investigative isolation ward of the local National Security Committee, as he still poses a threat to Nazarbayev's successor.
With the start of a new political cycle in Kazakhstan, it can be assumed that Massimov will remain in custody for as long as possible. This underscores that Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is most wary of him.
Even while in prison and facing health issues, Massimov poses a danger to Tokayev. He knows too much about Tokayev's actions during Nazarbayev's rule, which makes Tokayev cautious, if not cowardly.
Thus, Massimov's death could be advantageous for the current authorities. At the same time, what is happening to him affects society, where many have already forgotten about the "outstanding" figures of the "Old Kazakhstan." However, this situation could negatively impact the ruling elite.
Massimov's fate serves as a warning to those who ever worked with him or supported him, and this fear still lives on in Kazakhstani politics.
The prospects for the Nazarbayev clan to return to power now seem quite illusory. However, they may face the loss of property and even imprisonment, especially if Tokayev can ignore his obligations to the first president.
Thus, Tokayev's actions to transfer power to his trusted individuals and redistribute property will not encounter serious resistance in Kazakhstan.
Nevertheless, like Nazarbayev, Tokayev risks that a successful transfer of power could mark the beginning of his own downfall. Even if his successors take office, they will still have to confront a reality where they could be ousted from power, history, and the economy.
Tokayev is already demonstrating this by gradually excluding Nazarbayev from the political life of the country.
