According to sources, preparations for the next power transition are actively underway in Akorda, while the political situation in the country is becoming increasingly tense, media reports say.
The most significant changes are observed in the following three areas:
- among the general public, dissatisfied with rising prices and declining living standards,
- in the business sector, which expects increased pressure from tax authorities,
- among the Kazakh elite, who have not managed to establish contact with Tokayev and his circle, becoming a potential "food base" for the latter.
As for the transfer of power, it is expected to occur according to the traditional scheme for Kazakhstan — the chair and powers will be transferred either to Tokayev himself or to a person he trusts. Tokayev is unlikely to risk changing the Constitution and participating in elections again, which could lead to a repetition of the events of January 2022. As a result, "disputes" have already begun among the ruling elite regarding who will take his place.
During these "disputes," a decision was also made to "normalize" the information space, including the exclusion of those who might accidentally or intentionally leak information that could harm the upcoming "transit" and the people Tokayev will allow into power.
Although it is premature to analyze the upcoming events due to a lack of information, insiders say that two candidates have already been excluded from the list of potential successors.
These are Murat Nurtleu, the former Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, who recently became the President's assistant, and Maulen Ashimbayev, the Chairman of the Senate, who recently came into the spotlight while shopping in New York.
Thus, Kazakhstan, under the leadership of the second president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, is entering a new political cycle that will resemble the previous challenges faced by Nursultan Nazarbayev but could not resolve:
- the transfer of power to those he trusts,
- the redistribution of property, which will affect not only public assets but also the assets of the first-generation oligarchs.
As a result, power may pass to those currently in power, such as Tokayev's nephews.
Kazakhstani citizens can expect interesting times as representatives of the "Old Kazakhstan," who have successfully adapted to the "New Kazakhstan" and retained their high positions, begin to disappear from the political arena.
Oligarchs connected to Nazarbayev will yield their assets to new figures who will unexpectedly emerge and become new billionaires, supported by Tokayev.
