According to reports from Iranian human rights defenders, the Iranian authorities intend to permanently disconnect from the global network, providing internet access only to those who pass a regime compliance check. This was reported by The Guardian.
A report by the organization Filterwatch, which monitors internet censorship in Iran, indicates that a secret plan is being developed to turn international internet access into a "state privilege."
Government representatives and the country's media have already informed the public that this step will be permanent, warning that free access to the internet will not be restored after 2026.
According to the new plan, only Iranians with access to classified information or who have passed a government check will be able to use a filtered version of the global network, as stated by Amir Rashidi, head of Filterwatch. Other citizens will only have access to a national internet, which is an isolated network within the country.
The situation with the internet in Iran has been deteriorating since January 8, when communication was cut off after 12 days of escalating anti-government protests. Thousands of people have died, although protests have reportedly slowed due to brutal repression.
One of the largest internet shutdowns in history, which has lasted longer than similar measures in Egypt during the 2011 Tahrir Square protests, has led to limited information flow from the country. A government representative told Iranian media that the international internet will be disconnected at least until March 20, when the Persian New Year, Nowruz, is celebrated.
A former U.S. State Department official dealing with internet censorship expressed the opinion that Iran's intention to permanently disconnect from the global internet seems "plausible and terrifying," but will also require significant costs.
“There is a likelihood that this will actually happen, however, the economic and cultural consequences could be enormous, and the authorities may overestimate their capabilities,” he added.
Rashidi noted: “It seems that [the authorities] are satisfied with the current level of internet connectivity and believe that the shutdown has helped them regain control of the situation.”
The current measures to disconnect the internet in Iran are the result of 16 years of efforts to strengthen regime control over the network. This includes a complex system of filtering internet traffic that allows selected users to access the global internet while others remain blocked, a system known as "whitelisting."
The creation of a "whitelist" has been made possible by technologies exported from China, claim researchers from Project Ainita and the Outline Foundation, who study the Iranian internet. They requested not to disclose their names due to the regime's repression against digital rights defenders. This has been made possible by high-performance devices that connect to networks to monitor and manage internet traffic. Existing commercial systems can be adapted so that the authorities can monitor internet traffic at the level of entire countries, including spying on individual users and blocking websites, protocols, and specific VPNs.
“Essentially, every network has censorship equipment installed, allowing the government to block connections in both directions,” they added.
There is also a national internet network in Iran, available exclusively within the country. It provides Iranians with access to various websites and applications developed by the government, including Iranian messengers, search engines, navigation applications, and video streaming services similar to Netflix. This network is controlled by the regime and is virtually disconnected from the global network.
The creation of a national internet in Iran began in 2009 after a temporary internet shutdown during mass protests against Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's reelection, when the authorities realized that a complete internet disconnection could have serious economic consequences.
“They shut down the internet without prior analysis of the consequences. This had not happened before,” noted researchers from the Outline Foundation and Project Ainita. “This effectively paralyzed the entire internet and caused significant damage to many systems.”
By 2012, the Supreme Council of Cyberspace was established, which began developing plans for creating a fragmented internal internet. Over time, the authorities began to improve their methods of internet shutdown, blocking services like Facebook, Twitter, and Google during the 2012 protests, while keeping economically important services operational.
Researchers from Project Ainita and Outline claim that over the next decade, Iranian authorities used "carrot and stick" methods to force online companies, banks, and internet providers to relocate their core infrastructure—data centers and offices—inside the country. The government provided tax incentives to those who agreed and restricted the activities of those who refused.
In 2015, a group of researchers acquired server space in Iran using bitcoins and began scanning the country's IP address space.
As a result, they made a surprising discovery: Iran was creating an internal internet network, completely isolated from the outside world, using the same protocols as in regular corporate or home networks.
“It’s like an office where you have file servers or HR systems, and if you are in a café, you cannot connect to them because they are on a closed network. Access to them from the outside is impossible,” explained one of the researchers.
The national internet network of Iran functions during all protests and is now the primary means for most Iranians to access the internet. In the future, it is likely to develop while remaining inaccessible to users outside the country and having no connection to the global network.
A former U.S. State Department official noted that Iran's capabilities in controlling the internet, demonstrated recently, significantly exceed those of many other authoritarian regimes that may seek similar actions.
However, it remains to be seen whether Iran can create a new, permanent online reality. “The community of digital rights defenders rightly expresses concern. However, the consequences of this will be truly serious for the Iranian authorities, who will bear responsibility for the damage caused to the economy,” he concluded.
