The journal Nature has officially retracted a high-profile scientific publication on the consequences of climate change after critical errors were identified in the economic indicators for Uzbekistan. The incorrect data for this country significantly distorted the global forecast of losses to the world economy, as noted in a retraction published on December 3.
Analysis showed that the study's results were overly dependent on the inclusion or exclusion of Uzbekistan from the sample. The data from the period of 1995-1999 contained numerous significant inaccuracies. The authors of the study acknowledged that these errors made it impossible for the article to continue to exist in its original form.
Errors in statistics related to one country led to the large-scale losses predicted in the article. Solomon Xiang, director of the Global Policy Lab at Stanford University, discovered an anomaly during an experiment where excluding data from Uzbekistan significantly altered the final results.
The original model of the study suggested that Uzbekistan's GDP fell by nearly 90% in 2000, while in 2010, growth of more than 90% was anticipated in some regions of the country. Such fluctuations contradict official economic statistics. According to World Bank data, Uzbekistan's economic development over the past 40 years has been relatively stable, with fluctuations ranging from a decline of 0.2% to growth of 7.7%.
After revision, the expected decline in global GDP by 2100 was reduced from 62% to 23%, and by 2050 from 19% to 6%. Now, the damage from climate change to global GDP by 2050 is estimated at 17% instead of the previously stated 19%.
The retracted article generated significant resonance and became the second most cited in the media in 2024. The data presented in it were used for high-level strategic planning, including by the U.S. government, the World Bank, and other international organizations.
