In the context of global population aging, Central Asia stands out as one of the youngest regions in Eurasia. Specifically, the median age in Tajikistan is just 22 years, in Kyrgyzstan it is 25, and in Uzbekistan it is 27 years. It is projected that even by 2050, these figures will remain relatively low, which could open new opportunities for economic development.
The region's population continues to grow: if in 2000 it was 56 million, it is expected to increase to over 84 million by 2025, and by the middle of the century, it could reach nearly 112 million. The population is growing particularly rapidly in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
The report emphasizes the importance of investing in education, healthcare, and skill development among youth, which is especially relevant for Central Asia, where countries face challenges in human capital.
According to World Bank data, children born today in this region will be able to realize only 50-60% of their potential due to limited access to quality education, healthcare services, and social protection.
If current levels of investment in children and youth do not change, the region may face rising unemployment, increasing inequality, and loss of economic potential, warn the authors of the report.
For every 100 working-age people in Central Asia, there are approximately 60 dependents.
“This is a historically low figure that will begin to rise after 2040 due to population aging. The next 10-15 years will be critically important: if changes do not occur now in education, healthcare, and social protection systems, economic growth could be significantly constrained for many years to come,” the statement says.
Migration creates additional challenges.
Millions of workers from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan are abroad, while their children grow up without parents, which affects their emotional well-being, education, and social adaptation.
In the coming years, many migrants will return home at retirement age, increasing the burden on social services.
By the middle of the century, 60.5% of the region's population will live in cities. However, the pace of infrastructure development, including water supply, sewage, transportation, and healthcare systems, is not keeping up with urban population growth. This is particularly noticeable in the rapidly developing areas of Tashkent, Dushanbe, and Bishkek.
Climate change is also exacerbating the situation: droughts, melting glaciers, and water shortages are already leading to population migration and increased pressure on urbanized areas. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are increasingly facing heatwaves that threaten health and the economy.
Experts note that two-thirds of future economic growth will depend on investments in human capital, which includes:
- access to quality education from an early age;
- providing children and adolescents with modern healthcare services and healthy nutrition;
- social protection systems that support families;
- employment and training programs for youth, including girls and young women;
- expanding access to water, sanitation, and safe urban environments.
If these measures are implemented, Central Asia will be able to effectively leverage its key advantage—a young, energetic, and numerous generation that will become the foundation of the region by 2050, experts believe.
