Historical Aspects of Birth Rates Since 1991
After Kyrgyzstan gained independence in 1991, its demographic situation underwent significant changes. In the early 1990s, the birth rate remained high—the total fertility rate (TFR) was about 3.6 children per woman. However, due to severe economic conditions, by the end of the 1990s, this figure had fallen to 2.4, one of the lowest values in the history of observations. The decline in birth rates in post-Soviet Central Asian countries was widespread, and Kyrgyzstan was no exception.Since the mid-2000s, the situation began to change: economic stability and improvements in the social sphere led to an increase in birth rates. By 2014, the TFR had reached about 3.2 children per woman, indicating the beginning of a new demographic upturn. In 2016–2019, birth rates peaked, with an average of 3.1–3.3 children per woman. For example, in 2019, a record number of newborns was recorded—173,000 children in a year.
However, the ongoing aging of the population raises serious concerns. According to expert analysis, Kyrgyzstan is gradually entering a phase of demographic aging. If in 1989 the share of people over 65 years old was only 5%, by 2019 this figure had risen to 6.2%. Forecasts indicate that by 2030 this number will reach 7%, and by 2050—about 19%. If these predictions come true, the population structure of the country will resemble that of European states, creating new challenges for the economy and healthcare system.
Migration: A Factor in Declining Birth Rates. Numerous labor migrants leaving the country also play an important role in the decline of birth rates. Many of them are young people and individuals of reproductive age working in Russia, Kazakhstan, and other countries. It is estimated that hundreds of thousands of Kyrgyz citizens work abroad, and this situation directly affects the number of births. Baktygul Bozgorpoeva, director of the public fund "Alliance for Family Planning," notes that migration and changing priorities among the youth have contributed to the decline in birth rates. Many couples live apart or postpone decisions about having children due to instability.
Urbanization and Changing Family Values. The process of urbanization also affects birth rates: the share of the urban population increased from 34% in 2009 to about 42% in 2025. Moving to the city implies new living conditions, which often leads to a reduction in the number of children in the family. In cities, high costs of housing and education, as well as women's career ambitions, contribute to later marriages and delayed motherhood. The average age of marriage and the birth of the first child for women is 23-24 years and continues to rise, changing the perception of the ideal family, where two children become the norm.
Social Conditions and Infrastructure. The availability of social services for families with children, such as kindergartens and schools, also significantly affects birth rates. Despite an increase in the number of preschool institutions, in 2019 only 25% of children aged 0 to 6 attended kindergartens. This hinders parents' employment and increases the "cost" of having each child. Modern parents focus not only on quantity but also on the quality of life and education for their children. Thus, many young families choose to have a limited number of children, striving to provide them with maximum opportunities.
The overall trend has led to a decrease in the average number of children in Kyrgyz families from 3.1 to 2.7 over the past five years. That is, if in the mid-2010s women were giving birth to an average of three children, now it is less than three. This change in reproductive behavior can be explained by the socio-economic conditions of the country.
Regional Features
Against the backdrop of overall indicators, there are noticeable differences between regions and types of settlements. In rural areas, the birth rate is significantly higher than in cities. According to the National Statistics Committee and the UN, women in the country give birth to an average of three or more children, while in villages, they have four or more. The total fertility rate in rural areas exceeds that in urban areas by one unit. For example, recently, the TFR in rural areas was about 3.4, while in cities it was approximately 2.7–2.9, indicating the preservation of traditions of large families.Comparisons by regions also show differences. High birth rates are observed in southern and mountainous regions, such as Batken, Osh, Talas, and Naryn, where the highest number of children per woman is traditionally registered. For example, in Batken region, the TFR is 3.5–3.7 children. At the same time, in Bishkek and northern regions, where the level of urbanization is higher, birth rates are significantly lower, reaching 2.5–2.7. Thus, the southern and mountainous regions contribute to population growth, while the capital and industrially developed areas approach the indicators of countries with low birth rates.
The difference between regions is explained by both economic and cultural factors. In poor agricultural regions, children are seen as support for the family, while in cities, the costs of raising children are rising. This creates a demographic contrast between the metropolis of Bishkek and rural areas, where traditions of large families persist.
Is Kyrgyzstan Following Global Trends?
The trend of declining birth rates in Kyrgyzstan aligns with the global model of demographic transition. Many countries go through a stage of declining birth rates as economic growth and living standards improve. In some countries, such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, a decrease in TFR is also observed. Kyrgyzstan, with higher birth rates than the global average, is now following the path of its neighbors, although our TFR of about 2.8 (as of 2022) still remains relatively high compared to global data.However, it is important to understand that this trend is likely to continue, which may lead to similar demographic problems faced by more developed countries. If no measures are taken, the birth rate may continue to fall, requiring attention from the authorities.
Possible Consequences of Current Trends
The decline in birth rates in Kyrgyzstan is linked to the global demographic transition and may lead to serious consequences for society. In particular, this could cause:Accelerated Aging of the Population. UN forecasts (UN Population Division) indicate that with low birth rates, the share of youth will decrease, and by the middle of the century, one in five residents of the country could be elderly. This will create additional pressure on the working-age population.
Labor Shortages and Economic Slowdown. In the next 15-20 years, when today's children reach working age, the number of new workers will decrease, which will create problems for economic growth and will be felt particularly in sectors requiring young specialists.
Risks of Depopulation. Low birth rates combined with migration may lead to the extinction of certain villages and settlements. UNFPA studies show that in small towns and villages, youth leave first, and then birth rates fall below mortality rates.
Changes in Gender Balance and Family Structure. An increase in the share of women in the population may also create new social challenges, requiring a reassessment of social services such as nursing homes and care services. This is related to changes in family structure models, where families with one or two children will prevail.
