It is noted that having a young population presents a unique opportunity for obtaining a "demographic dividend." An increase in the share of the working-age population can accelerate economic growth; however, significant investments in human capital are necessary for this.
Central Asia remains one of the youngest regions in Eurasia against the backdrop of global population aging. The median age in Tajikistan is 22 years, in Kyrgyzstan it is 25, and in Uzbekistan it is 27 years.
The region's population continues to grow: from 56 million in 2000, it is projected to exceed 84 million by 2025 and approach 112 million by mid-century. The populations of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are growing particularly quickly, with forecasts suggesting an increase of nearly 5 million and over 15 million, respectively, by 2050.
According to the World Bank, modern children in the region will only be able to realize 50-60% of their productive potential due to limited access to quality education, healthcare, and social protection.
The authors of the report warn: if the level of investment in children and youth remains the same, it will lead to rising unemployment, increased inequality, and a loss of economic potential.
"The next 10-15 years are critically important: if the education, healthcare, and social protection systems are not modernized, economic growth may become impossible for decades to come," the UN News Service added.
Migration also poses a significant challenge. Millions of working-age residents of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan work outside their countries, leaving their children to be raised by others, which negatively affects their emotional well-being and academic performance.
In the coming years, many migrants will return home at retirement age, increasing the burden on social services.It is projected that by mid-century, 60.5% of the region's population will live in urban areas. However, infrastructure (water supply, sewage, transportation, healthcare systems) is not keeping pace with urban growth, which is particularly noticeable in the rapidly developing areas of Tashkent, Dushanbe, and Bishkek.
Climate change exacerbates the situation: droughts, melting glaciers, and water shortages are already leading to population displacements and increasing pressure on urbanized areas. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan are also increasingly facing heatwaves that threaten health and the economy.
Experts emphasize that two-thirds of future economic growth will depend on investments in human capital, which includes:
- access to quality education from an early age;
- providing children and adolescents with modern healthcare services and healthy nutrition;
- social protection systems that support families;
- employment and training programs for youth, including girls and young women;
- expanding access to water, sanitation, and safe urban environments.
Photo on the main page is illustrative: freepik.com.
